Market Resolution

The following day, July 19, Astronomer released a statement confirming that Andy Byron had tendered his resignation. The market immediately moved to 100¢.

However, because the market had been proposed and disputed twice on July 18, a "Yes" resolution could only be submitted after those disputes were resolved. This is due to UMA’s policy of evaluating proposals based on the information available at the time they are submitted. Shortly after the earlier proposal was disputed, Polymarket clarified that the conditions for a "Yes" resolution had not yet been met.

As a result, even though the condition was satisfied the following day, it required a new proposal, which could not be submitted until the prior disputes were cleared.

In the July 18 dispute, P4 (Too Early) received 100% of the vote.

On July 22, the market resolved to "Yes".

This revealed a glaring issue in the oracle design, as it effectively locked up shares at 99.9¢ for four days, even though the resolution criteria had already been satisfied.

Looking Forward

The outcome of this market highlighted the tension between technical interpretation and the broader spirit of a market’s question. This was especially relevant given the market's short eight-day duration and the fact that it traded near 50¢ for much of that time. While Polymarket did act quickly to clarify the situation, issuing guidance within three hours, the process raised concerns about consistency. The clarification appeared to rely on discretionary judgment rather than a formal, transparent framework, leaving some participants uncertain about how similar cases might be handled in the future.