Why You Probably Shouldn't Propose

Many people assume that proposing on Polymarket is easy money. In reality, it involves risk. This guide is meant to help you understand why proposing is not as straightforward or profitable as it might seem. If you still decide to propose, a section at the end will walk you through the process.

Who Is Proposing

Most proposers fall into one of three categories:

1. Experienced users who understand the rules and timing

2. Bots that automatically monitor and submit proposals

3. New users who mistakenly believe it is free money

Disputers typically fall into the same groups:

1. Experienced disputers who specialize in identifying flawed proposals

2. Bots that quickly dispute incorrect proposals

3. Opportunists who target mistakes made by inexperienced proposers

Risks of Proposing

Proposing comes with several risks:

Proposal baiting Some users in the Polymarket comments or Discord will encourage you to propose before a market is fully resolved. These users often plan to dispute and profit from your error.

Capital at risk If your proposal is disputed and found to be incorrect, you lose your bond.

A Cost-Benefit Analysis

The chart below outlines the typical costs and benefits of proposing.

Costs	Benefits	Additional Considerations
$750 bond If you are successfully disputed, you will lose your entire $750 bond Takes time to research the answer, resolution criteria, and precedents	$5 reward (more if you are unsuccessfully disputed) Resolved markets can pay out the market shareholders You get to feel good	It takes 150 correct proposals to break-even with one incorrect proposal. Most disputed proposals are from first-time proposers. First-time proposers are often not aware of precedents. Most "free proposals" are proposed by bots.

Proposing is a public good. You are putting your bond at risk so that market participants can redeem their shares. There is no significant monetary benefit beyond a small reward.

The proposal incentive structure is designed to encourage shareholders who are confident their market has resolved to submit a proposal. It is not intended to attract external participants who are uninformed or simply seeking profit.

The five dollar reward is meant to be a small courtesy, not an incentive. It should not be seen as a reason to propose. Many first-time proposers believe it is free money and end up losing $750 instead.

Statistics

Disputes have increased sharply in the past three months, but most remain noncontentious i.e., if you get disputed, you will almost certainly lose. Over 80% of disputes are resolved as P4 (Too Early). Dune Dashboard

The data shows that most disputes come from new proposers, who have a high chance of being disputed. To recover the loss from one failed proposal, a user would need approximately 150 successful proposals unless they dispute others.

Before You Propose

Before submitting a proposal, take the following steps:

1. Review your evidence to ensure it fully satisfies the resolution criteria.

2. Ask in the UMA and Polymarket Discord servers to confirm the market is ready to be proposed.

3. Check past precedents and search the UMA Discord to make sure implicit rules are understood and followed.

4. Be cautious of proposal bait from users trying to get you to propose too early.

When proposing, you should not seek out markets just to propose. Instead, you should only propose on markets that are clearly ready for resolution.

Proposing

To submit a proposal:

1. Go to the market rules and click Propose resolution.

2. Approve your USDC.e on Polygon, then submit your answer.

3. Wait for the two-hour challenge period to end.

4. If undisputed, your proposal will move to the Settled tab.

5. If challenged, it will appear under Upcoming Votes for UMA stakers to vote on.

Propose Resolution

Go to the market page, review the rules, and click Propose resolution.

UMA Propose Page

You'll be redirected to the UMA Propose page. You can also search for the request directly in the UMA Oracle.

Submit Your Answer

Approve your USDC.e balance, then enter and submit your proposed answer.

Verify Phase

Your proposal will appear in the Verify tab during the two-hour challenge window, where others can view and dispute it.

Settled Proposals

If successful, your proposal will move to the Settled tab and the reward will be issued.

Additional Tips

Which Markets Should I Propose?

1. Focus on markets where you have subject matter knowledge.

2. Look at markets where related markets with many options have already resolved, as these are more likely to be ready.

3. Review how similar markets have resolved in the past. For example, if you are considering weather markets, study previous proposals, disputes, and related discussions in this guide and in the Polymarket and UMA Discord servers.

4. Markets priced near 99 cents per share may indicate strong order book sentiment that the market is ready to be proposed.

Which Markets Should I Avoid Proposing?

1. Avoid markets with uncertain or ambiguous resolution criteria.

2. Be cautious if a market seems like it should have been proposed already but has not. Clearly resolved markets are typically proposed quickly by bots, so remaining ones are often too early.

3. Avoid proposing if the order book and market discussions do not reflect clear sentiment about the resolution. A lack of consensus is a strong signal the market may not be ready.

What Should I Do When Proposing?

1. Avoid proposing multiple markets at once. If your understanding of an implicit rule or precedent is incorrect, limiting your exposure reduces potential losses.

2. Avoid being the first to propose in a market with many options. For example, in a mention market for a completed event, it is safer to wait and observe which proposals go undisputed before submitting your own.

3. Make sure to do your own research and confirm that the event satisfies the resolution criteria. Do not rush. If your proposal is inaccurate, you will lose your bond. Keep in mind that others have two hours to dispute your proposal.

Why You Will Lose Your First Proposal

Even with preparation, there is a high chance you will lose your first proposal. Reading the rules and following them to the letter does not guarantee success, as there are hidden rules and precedents that are not clearly documented. New proposers often only learn about these after being disputed, which is why this guide includes a section dedicated to the most common precedents.

What's Next

Now that you understand the proposal process and its risks, let's take a closer look at how the dispute process works.