What Happened?
The following timeline outlines how the events unfolded (in Eastern Time).
July 24 at 5:40 am
Thailand confirms airstrikes on Cambodia.
July 24 at 1:00 pm
Polymarket creates Thailand strikes Cambodia markets.
July 25 at 1:30–3:03 am
Emerging reports surfacing that Thailand struck Cambodia
July 25 at 3:03 am
Thai government denies Cambodia allegations of Thai strikes on the Preah Vihear Temple
July 25 at 5:52 am
Cambodia's Lieutenant General claims that Thailand struck Cambodia at 1:30 am. Southeast Asian media outlets circulate the statement.
July 25 at 10:57 am
Reuters confirms via on-ground reporting of Thailand strikes. A few hours later, The Wall Street Journal and Janes references Cambodia Lieutenant General's statement.
July 26 at 12:00 am
Market proposed as "No"
July 26 at 1:54 am
Market disputed.
July 26 at 4:52 am
Second proposal of "No"
July 26 at 5:40 am
Second proposal disputed
July 26 at 11:14 am
Thai government report confirming airstrikes from July 24–25 surfaces. Market spikes to 99¢.
July 26 at 4:00 pm
Polymarket clarification
July 26 at 5:00 pm
Voting begins
July 26 at 7:03 pm
Thailand strikes Cambodia by July 31? proposed as "Yes"
July 26 at 9:03 pm
Thailand strikes Cambodia by July 31? proposal of "Yes" accepted
Market Price Action
There were three key instances of volatile price action.
The first spike occurred after the Cambodia press conference. The price rose from 30¢ to 67¢.
The second spike followed shortly after the proposal was disputed. The price climbed from 5¢ to 14¢.
The third spike followed the Thai government's statement. The price surged from 12¢ to 99¢.
Despite these sharp moves, the market traded below 50¢ for most of its duration, reflecting a lack of strong consensus among traders. Additionally, the third spike occurred around noon on July 26, well after the market deadline of July 25 at 11:59 pm.
Coming Up
With the timeline of events explained, we can now turn to the arguments on both sides, starting with the case for a "Yes" resolution.
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