The Wizard Chronicles
Market Background and Criteria
On July 15, 2025, Polymarket launched a prediction market titled NASCAR Autotrader EchoPark Automotive 400 Winner? The structure was simple: a single market with dozens of nested outcomes, each corresponding to a possible race winner. At its peak, the market had generated over $10,000 in trading volume, though trading was thinly spread across the full list of contestants. Many outcomes saw little or no activity.
For the market to resolve, the listed driver needed to be officially named the winner by NASCAR. The rules specified that the primary resolution source would be information from NASCAR (nascar.com).
On July 20, the event took place at Dover Motor Speedway. NASCAR posted the unofficial results, declaring Denny Hamlin the winner after a dramatic double-overtime finish. The result was also shared on X, where NASCAR announced Hamlin's victory.
Within seconds, proposals began flooding in, and within 10 minutes all 43 markets were proposed. Wizard submitted 38 proposals, risking a total of $28,500, while Lonfus submitted 5 proposals, risking $3,750. In total, the two proposers put up $32,250 in an attempt to earn just $215 in rewards, with each $750 proposal offering a $5 reward.
However, their hope for easy money was short-lived as a UMA verifier sent out a dispute alert.
As quickly as they were proposed, all 43 markets were disputed.
Evidence threads were created for each dispute, resulting in 43 separate threads.
As it became clear that UMA was siding with P4 (Too Early), Wizard called for support from across Polymarket and UMA, thereby beginning the Wizard Chronicles.
Coming Up
With the setup complete, we now turn to one of the largest proposal disputes in UMA history.
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