The Suitgate Saga
On April 17, 2025, Polymarket launched a prediction market asking whether Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy would appear in a suit. What appeared to be a niche wardrobe question quickly evolved into one of the platform’s most controversial and closely followed markets to date.
Trading Activity and Volume
As of early July 2025, the market has attracted over $240 million in total volume, making it one of the largest in Polymarket’s history. Thousands of unique traders participated, with activity surging during key public appearances, proposal windows, and disputes.
The Hague Appearance and Public Reaction
Over the next three months, Zelenskyy made at least three high-profile appearances wearing outfits that some believed met the criteria for a suit. The most debated came on June 24, when he appeared at the International Criminal Court in The Hague. His outfit closely resembled a dark business suit, complete with a lapel pin and structured jacket.
Several media outlets referred to it as a suit, fueling expectations that the market would finally resolve “Yes.” Many participants pointed to headlines, images, and broadcast footage as sufficient evidence that the criteria had been met.
But when the market didn’t resolve, frustration intensified. What some traders viewed as a straightforward case instead sparked renewed controversy. The decision led to another formal dispute and widespread backlash across social media and crypto forums.
Critics accused Polymarket and its oracle protocol UMA of ignoring public evidence, while defenders pointed to precedent, resolution criteria, and previous rulings. What began as a novelty market was now a full-blown debate over oracle legitimacy, platform trust, and the boundaries of decentralized governance.
Coming Up
This case study will walk you through the Zelenskyy Suit market saga, from its April 17 launch through key appearances, community disputes, and final resolution. It examines the arguments on both sides, the interpretation of resolution criteria, and what the controversy reveals about oracle design, precedent, and dispute mechanics.
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