Consistency With Sportsbook Norms

Decap pointed out that most major sportsbooks resolve motorsport bets based on the publicly announced winner, unless their rules explicitly require waiting for inspection.

FhantomBets expanded on this, noting that other betting exchanges like Kalshi and Betfair follow a similar approach. The key difference is that these platforms use a centralized team for resolution, rather than a decentralized oracle.

FhantomBets also observed that sportsbooks typically pay out to the "winner" based on the first-place finisher. However, it remains unclear if this reflects the intention of the market, especially in cases where the winner could be overturned.

50Pence adds to this by providing a screenshot of Betfair's Formula 1 race betting rules, further illustrating the emphasis on official results.

Puddinpop argued that sportsbooks which don't mention post-race inspections pay out immediately. By this logic, since Polymarket did not reference NASCAR policies in its rules, the market should accept the preliminary result. Additionally, he noted that UMA precedents are disorganized and largely inaccessible to the average proposer.

Tomorrow clarified that every sportsbook is different and pays out to the final winner if results change. Additionally, he argued that this approach wouldn't work for Polymarket.

Domer accuses Tomorrow of making an unsubstantiated argument, claiming that the biggest sportsbooks resolve based on preliminary results. JessicaOnlyChild responds by noting that these platforms are KYCed.

Since this was a topic of contention and users were not referencing sources, an investigation was conducted into the betting policies of the most popular platforms.

DraftKings

DraftKings' general rules show they pay out on unofficial results.

However, according to their motor sports rules, if the official result changes after post-race inspection, DraftKings reimburses any new winners as well.

FanDuel

For FanDuel, the general policy is that when specific sports rules do not specify, the official result will be used.

FanDuel may settle early as a discretionary benefit but reserves the right to resettle markets if results change.

For NASCAR markets, FanDuel specifies that the preliminary winner will be accepted as the official result.

Betfair

For Betfair's NASCAR race betting rules, they explicitly require settlement on the official NASCAR winner.

While some users argued Betfair allowed resolving using preliminary results, this is only true for F1 markets and not for NASCAR.

Summary

Throughout the debate, users referenced sportsbook practices to argue both for and against waiting for official results. While some highlighted the tendency to pay out on publicly announced winners, further investigation into rules from platforms such as DraftKings, FanDuel, and Betfair reveal inconsistent policies. Disagreements remained about market intent and the accessibility of UMA precedents, with no consensus reached on whether Polymarket should follow sportsbook norms.

Coming Up

Now that we've reviewed the main arguments supporting Wizard, we'll turn to the arguments in favor of Early Proposal.