Market Resolution and Response

Market Resolution

The market resolved to P4 (No Suit Yet).

For newer users, especially those who bought in near the top, the outcome was confusing. Many struggled to understand why references they believed were credible, such as isolated media phrasing or stylist opinions, did not qualify as consensus under the resolution rules. This led some to question the legitimacy of the process itself, speculating that the outcome may have been shaped more by coordinated voting or influence from large stakeholders.

Market Response

Following the proposal submission, market activity surged. "Yes" shares briefly spiked from under a cent to over 80 cents but quickly collapsed after the dispute was filed and discussions converged on a consensus that the outfit did not meet suit criteria. Trading volume increased sharply as users aligned around P4 as the expected outcome.

The Berlin proposal set a clear precedent: appearances resembling businesswear were not sufficient. Without press consensus, traditional tailoring, and formal elements like a tie, "Yes" proposals would face swift rejection.

It also reaffirmed the Vatican appearance as a litmus test for what does not qualify. Though the Berlin appearance drew more attention and a structured dispute process, it ultimately failed for the same reasons. These back-to-back resolutions established firmer boundaries and set the stage for the most contested challenge that followed.

Immediate Aftermath

Shortly after the June market expired and resolved to "No", a user submitted a "Yes" proposal for the July market based on the same Berlin appearance. The proposal was immediately disputed. Nothing had changed in the outfit or in the media coverage since the original challenge. Market consensus had already solidified that the event did not qualify.

The submission was widely viewed as an attempt to revive a settled outcome without new justification, setting the stage for what would become the most contentious appearance yet.

Coming Up

Next, we examine Zelenskyy's NATO appearance, the dispute that brought the suit market into full public view.