Understanding Resolution Criteria

Resolution Criteria and Use of Reporting Sources

Generally, market criteria can be satisfied in one of three ways:

1. Only via specific sources Some markets resolve solely based on an explicitly defined source, such as the Federal Register, the NFL, or Binance's spot market data. These sources are listed in the market rules and must be used for resolution. No other source or reporting is considered valid. If the source is unavailable, archived or equivalent alternatives may be used. Some market rules define what to do if a source is missing.

2. Via a consensus of credible reporting For broader or more ambiguous markets, such as Will Kanye launch a coin in 2025?, resolution depends on a consensus of credible reporting. These markets do not name a single resolution source. Instead, the outcome must be supported by reporting from multiple independent and credible news organizations.

3. A combination of both Some markets permit resolution either through a specific source or through a consensus of credible reporting. For example, a market might reference official information from a government website while also allowing resolution based on corroborated media reports. However, if a website is specifically listed, such as:

The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the London City Airport Station, once finalized and available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.

Then only that source may be used for resolution. A consensus of reporting is not valid unless explicitly allowed in the market rules.

Resolution Through Major News Outlets

In some cases, markets may refer to a general standard like "major news outlets" as the basis for resolution, as seen in markets such as Will Trump deport Elon Musk in 2025? While this still requires independent corroboration, it narrows the range of acceptable sources to reputable, mainstream reporting.

Resolution Through Official Communication

Some markets may resolve based on public statements made by an official, through various forms of communication. For example:

Only tokens which are confirmed to have been launched by Kanye West, either through posts from official social media channels, or otherwise confirmed by public statements, will qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

There are three resolution methods: posts from official social media, public statements (such as interviews or press releases), and a consensus of credible reporting.

The resolution source in these markets may still be listed as a consensus of credible reporting, even if direct confirmation is allowed through other means.

In markets such as Will Kanye launch a coin in 2025? a consensus of credible reporting works as a backup method when there isn't a clear official source.

Polymarket Social Media

Polymarket's social media activity cannot be relied upon as a resolution source. The team managing social channels is separate from the group responsible for issuing official clarifications, and the two are not always aligned. In some cases, official clarifications have directly contradicted earlier social posts. Social media posts are also not endorsements of how a market should resolve, even if they appear to express a position or highlight a particular outcome.

Example:

After the Epstein files were released, Polymarket's official X account posted, "It contains NONE of the names of Epstein's associates." However, they later issued a clarification in the market Who will be named in Epstein files by June 30? stating that names of associates were in fact included.

Users who relied on the tweet and took positions accordingly lost money when the market resolved in the opposite direction.

What's Next

Now that you understand how resolution criteria are satisfied, let's take a closer look at what a consensus of credible reporting entails.