Introduction to Polymarket

What is Polymarket?

Polymarket is a decentralized prediction market platform that allows users to bet on real-world events like politics, sports, finance, and current events, without trading fees. Users can fund their accounts using a credit/debit card, bank transfer, or cryptocurrency.

How Polymarket Works

1. Market Creation: Trusted creators can make markets where users place bets. They ensure each market is well-structured and has clear resolution criteria.

2. Buying & Selling Shares: Each market has possible outcomes (like "Yes" or "No"). Users can buy or sell shares in the outcome they think will happen, at any time before it resolves. Winning shares pay $1 if correct.

3. Pricing & Probabilities: Share prices reflect how likely the market thinks an outcome is. If a share costs $0.70, the market is estimating a 70% chance the event will happen.

4. Resolution: When the outcome is confirmed, winning shares pay $1 and losing shares pay $0.

In some cases, markets may resolve 50-50, usually due to postponed or canceled sports games. In such cases, each share pays $0.50. Check resolution criteria for details.

An Example

1. Market Creation: Polymarket launches the market Will Donald Trump win the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election? with two outcomes: Yes and No.

2. Buying & Selling Shares: Yuzuru believes Trump will win, so she buys 100 Yes shares at $0.60 each, spending $60. She can sell her shares anytime before the market resolves or hold them and redeem after resolution.

3. Pricing & Probabilities: The $0.60 price reflects the market's estimated 60% chance that Trump will win. Prices change as users trade based on new information.

4. Resolution & Payouts: If Trump wins, Yuzuru can redeem her Yes shares for $1 each, for a total of $100. If Trump loses, her Yes shares are worth $0, and she loses her $60 investment.

How to Read a Polymarket

To understand how a Polymarket works, it's helpful to break down its key components.

Each market consists of four sections:

1. Market Overview: Includes the market title, price graph, and buy/sell interface

2. Order Book: Displays current bids and asks for each outcome

3. Rules: Explains the market's resolution criteria

4. Discussion: Shows comments, user positions, and related markets

We'll walk through each of these sections using the market Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? as an example.

Market Overview

Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? market overview

In Market Overview, you'll see the market question, total volume, expiration date, and a price graph. You can toggle price history across different timeframes and track price movements in response to key events. On the right, you can place market or limit orders. You'll also find a link to the market and the option to bookmark it.

Orderbook

Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? orderbook

The Order Book shows current bids and asks for each outcome, along with any available liquidity rewards. Below it, you can ask Grok for additional context about the market.

Rules

Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? rules

In the Rules section, you'll find the resolution criteria.

For this market to resolve Yes, a definitive statement must be made by the U.S. President, a Cabinet member, a Joint Chiefs of Staff member, or a federal agency confirming the existence of extraterrestrial life or technology by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

To resolve No, the market must reach the deadline without a qualifying confirmation. Official denials or reporting that aliens do not exist will not trigger a No resolution.

At the bottom of this section, users can propose a resolution if criteria are met, by posting a $750 bond.

Some markets resolve No as soon as the opposite happens. For example, if another team wins the NBA Finals, Will the Celtics win the 2024 NBA Finals? resolves No right away. Other markets, like Will aliens be confirmed by the end of 2025?, require waiting. If nothing happens by the deadline, it resolves No. Denials or no news are not enough. Only missing the Yes condition by the deadline counts.

Discussion

Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? market

At the bottom of each market, you'll find the Discussion section. This includes market comments (filterable by holders), top holders, activity, and related markets. The Activity tab shows recent buys and sells. Always perform your own due diligence when reviewing user comments.

What's Next

Now that you've seen the main parts of the market interface, let's look at how markets resolve.