Preliminary Results

JessicaOnlyChild argued that waiting for the post-race inspection is not delaying resolution, but ensuring the resolution is correct.

Domer replied that NASCAR never specified on the Results page that results were preliminary or subject to change, unlike some other sporting organizations. JessicaOnlyChild countered that his claims were moot, given his lack of understanding about how NASCAR operates.

Jessica also argued that UMA has previously resolved markets incorrectly by not waiting for official results, and that a wrongful resolution would be worse than waiting a few hours for confirmation.

Tomorrow noted that at the time of proposal, there was no confirmed winner, and that without official confirmation, you are not the winner.

Use of Analogy

SJ gave a Kentucky Derby example, stating that a horse does not win just by crossing the finish line first; results must be confirmed as legitimate, and horses can be disqualified.

SJ emphasized that waiting a few hours is generally reasonable.

SJ goes on to describe that there are levels to this, and that waiting a few hours is generally acceptable.

Prince of Seleucid exaggerated the argument by jokingly portraying the idea as if people would have to wait for eternity for results.

Risk of Results Being Overturned

Flame noted that the argument that inspections didn't change results was disingenuous, as the proposal challenge period was only two hours and it wasn't certain the inspection would be complete by then. With such uncertainty, proposals could be submitted too early.

SJ suggested a solution: limit the waiting period for official results to 24 hours after the preliminary winner is declared.

Nemo argued that if the results were overturned, Polymarket could create a new market for the actual winner, though this may seem convoluted compared to simply waiting a few hours.

Several users mocked the idea of waiting to resolve but conveniently left out the fact that the winners were officially certified and required to be certified before the resolution. In the NASCAR event, however, the results were not officially certified at the time of proposal.

JessicaOnlyChild reiterated the reasonable timeframe argument.

Finally, Lonfus, one of the proposers, acknowledged his mistake in pushing for immediate resolution.

Summary

There was significant debate about the appropriate timing for market resolution, especially in light of potential changes after inspections. Users raised concerns about the risks of inspections overturning outcomes, pointed to past mistakes from resolving too early, and discussed reasonable waiting periods. Analogies to other sports and the complexities of the NASCAR process highlighted differing views on what constitutes a fair and timely resolution. Many noted that the consequences of settling on a preliminary result only for it to be overturned would be far more problematic than the minor inconvenience of waiting for official confirmation. Ultimately, opinions remained divided on whether accuracy or speed should take priority in market settlement.

Coming Up

With the debate over preliminary results settled, we next address concerns about the proposer's lack of due diligence.