Market Resolution and Response

Market Resolution

The market resolved to P4 (No Suit Yet) for both the June 25 and June 30 proposals. In both cases, over 90 percent of voting power, measured by staked UMA, supported the "No Suit Yet" outcome. For the final dispute, the market resolved to P1 (No Suit).

In the June 25 dispute, "No Suit Yet" received 92.74% of the vote, while "Yes" received 7.26%.

In the June 30 dispute, "No Suit Yet" received 93.76%, "Yes" received 6.00%, and "No" received 0.24%.

In the July 4 dispute, "No Suit" received 93.25%, "Yes" received 5.44%, "Not Suit Yet" received 1.30%, and "Unknown / 50-50" received 0.02%.

On July 8, Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July? resolved to No. It reached a total volume of $242 million, and the order book was fully cleared.

Market Response

Despite intense debate and widespread social media attention, "Yes" shares never traded above 20¢ during the final window. Traders overwhelmingly priced in alignment with previous resolutions. This may further support the view that many vocal "Yes" supporters were newer market participants unfamiliar with UMA's dispute mechanics or historical precedent.

Coming Up

In the next chapter, we’ll look at how the community reacted across social media and what it means for Polymarket.