Was Andy Byron Out?

Andy Byron out as Astronomer CEO by next Friday?Polymarket

Market Background and Criteria

On July 16, 2025, during a Coldplay concert at Gillette Stadium in Boston the kiss cam caught Astronomer CEO Andy Byron holding HR chief Kristin Cabot tightly. The footage went viral and sparked rumors of an affair, leading to speculation that he could be fired (Fortune). Shortly thereafter, Polymarket launched the market Andy Byron out as Astronomer CEO by next Friday?

For the market to resolve "Yes," Andy Byron had to stop being CEO of Astronomer at any point between July 17 and July 25, 2025. That included cases where his resignation or firing was announced during that window, even if it wouldn’t take effect immediately. The primary resolution source was official information from Astronomer or Byron himself, though a clear consensus from credible reporting could also count. If neither occurred by the deadline, the market would resolve to "No." The market ran for only about a week, making it a fast-moving event that hinged entirely on how quickly the company and press responded to the scandal.

Price Movement and Trader Reaction

When the market opened, "Yes" shares traded between 40 and 50 cents. However, there were two events that raised questions about whether the market could actually resolve.

First Statement from Astronomer

In the afternoon of July 18, Astronomer issued a brief statement confirming that the board of directors had launched a formal investigation into the Coldplay kiss cam incident. The company emphasized its commitment to leadership accountability but made no mention of Andy Byron’s status as CEO or whether he had been placed on leave. Meanwhile, a source told Axios that Byron was planning to resign.

In response, the price of "Yes" shares jumped from around 50 cents to 82 cents before dropping back down to the 60-cent range.

A New Interim CEO takes over

A few hours later, Astronomer confirmed that Andy Byron had been placed on leave, with Pete DeJoy stepping in as interim CEO. This followed the board’s investigation into the alleged affair, but again no official word was given on whether Byron had been removed as CEO or was just temporarily sidelined.

After the statement was posted, there were discussions about whether it satisfied the resolution criteria, specifically whether the wording clearly indicated that Byron was no longer CEO. Many argued that the appointment of an interim CEO, combined with the "ceases to be CEO for any length of time" resolution clause, meant the conditions for a "Yes" resolution had been met.

"Yes" shares spiked from around 60 to 90 cents. Soon after, a resolution proposal argued that Byron had effectively been removed as CEO.

Market Controversy

Nevertheless, several people disagreed with the resolution proposal. They argued that being placed on leave and replaced by an interim CEO didn’t qualify, since Andy Byron still held the CEO title, even if he wasn’t actively performing the role.

The proposal was formally disputed, setting off a broader conflict over how the market should resolve.

Coming Up

With the market context established, we can now examine the arguments from both sides, beginning with those in favor of "Yes."