Was It Too Early?

For Wizard, Lonfus, and many other Polymarket users, it seemed obvious that the market was ready to be proposed. NASCAR had already announced the winner and made no mention that the results were preliminary or subject to change.

Unbeknownst to them, there was a crucial post-race inspection requirement, which the Polymarket rules did not address in relation to NASCAR's policies. In addition, Wizard, Lonfus, and others did not have a deep understanding of how these markets typically resolve. As a result, they interpreted the criteria to refer to the initial announcement, not realizing that the result was still preliminary. This oversight became critical, given how NASCAR handles race results.

NASCAR Car Inspections

To understand why this oversight mattered, it's important to understand how NASCAR inspections work. NASCAR conducts inspections on all cars throughout its racing series to ensure compliance with technical regulations, as detailed in NASCAR's official inspection overview. There are two main phases: pre-race and post-race inspections.

Pre-Race Inspection

The pre-race inspection is thorough, covering more than five stations, and is designed to enforce uniformity and fairness by confirming that all cars meet specific mechanical and safety standards before taking the track. This process helps maintain a level playing field and prevents teams from gaining illegal advantages before competition begins.

Post-Race Inspection

To ensure the integrity of the competition, a post-race inspection is conducted immediately after the event. This review determines whether the winning car and others meet all regulatory requirements. A failure results in automatic disqualification, regardless of the initial race outcome. Just as in basketball, where officials may review a last-second shot or foul before declaring the final score, NASCAR does not make the results official until this post-race review is complete.

While NASCAR may announce a preliminary winner immediately after the race, the official result is only confirmed after the post-race inspection. This inspection process often results in a brief delay between the initial announcement and the official confirmation of the winner.

Preliminary Results

NASCAR articles and official communications often indicate when results are not yet final. In this case, a note at the bottom of the article said the story would be updated, but the article did not initially mention the post-race inspection or officially confirm the winner. This follows NASCAR's typical approach: the initial winner is announced right after the race, but the result remains unofficial until inspection is complete.

This is supported by Yahoo Sports, which also reported that the outcome was still unofficial and pending post-race inspection.

Only after the inspection was completed did NASCAR update their article to confirm Hamlin as the official winner. At that point, with the official results published and all requirements met, the markets were finally ready to be proposed.

Coming Up

With the dispute fully explained, it's time to look at the arguments from each perspective, starting with Wizard's side.