Market Overview
Before Market Launch
On February 28, 2025, Volodymyr Zelenskyy met with former President Donald Trump at the Oval Office to discuss the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Before the meeting, Trump greeted him with "Oh look, you're all dressed up today" referencing Zelenskyy's trademark military-style outfit (The Guardian). During the meeting, a reporter asked why he wasn't wearing a suit. Zelenskyy replied, "I will wear a костюм [Ukrainian for suit] after this war is finished" (BBC). His comment was widely reported in the media and received both praise and criticism. It is important to clarify that in Ukrainian, the word костюм can refer not only to a business suit but also to uniforms or coordinated outfits.
Market Launch
Polymarket launched the market Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before June? on April 17, 2025, with the following resolution criteria:
Betting on the suit market was essentially a leveraged bet on peace. Zelenskyy had tied wearing a suit to the war's end, making "No" the default expectation. The market reflected this, with Yes shares initially trading around 6¢ throughout April.
Trader Expectations
Some Yes bettors believed Zelenskyy might reconsider or that his outfit could technically satisfy the criteria without full intent, wagering on a wardrobe technicality rather than the end of war.
Nevertheless, the core question remained: would Zelenskyy return to wearing a traditional Western suit, like the one he wore during his February 23, 2022 televised address to Russia, the night before the full-scale invasion? (The Guardian, YouTube)
Potential Suit Appearances
Over the next three months, there were three key public appearances that some believed might have resolved the market.
April 26, 2025
Zelenskyy appears at Pope Francis's funeral in a black field jacket. Market participants mostly agree it does not qualify as a suit. Minimal media attention.
May 28, 2025
Zelenskyy appears in Berlin wearing a black jacket and pants. First outfit to generate serious market discussion, though media coverage remains limited.
June 24, 2025
Zelenskyy appears at the NATO Summit in the same outfit as Berlin. Several headlines describe it as a "suit."
Coming Up
In the next chapter, we'll explore Zelenskyy's Vatican appearance, an early litmus test for what might qualify as a "suit."
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