Refunds
Polymarket may overturn market outcomes and refund users at its discretion when an Oracle resolution does not reflect its intent, though such refunds are rare and typically announced via official social media channels.
Refund Issuance
Refunds are either issued by reimbursing the initial cost of bets or covering losses incurred before the clarification. The exact refund method and mechanics are specified in the official clarification.
Reimbursements for initial bet costs or losses are more common in cases where a market is clearly dead-on-arrival or cannot be resolved correctly. For example, in the market Supreme Court unblocks Alien Enemies Act?, the market was considered dead-on-arrival because it was released later than intended and could not resolve to "Yes." As a result, all losses on trades made before the clarification were refunded.
Since the market conditions were fundamentally flawed from the start, buyers were not at fault. This is different from cases where a market becomes controversial due to disagreement over interpretation or unclear definitions. In this case, the market was dead-on-arrival and impossible to resolve as intended, rather than merely disputed or ambiguous. Markets that are merely disputed or ambiguous are generally not refunded.
In rare cases where a market resolves incorrectly, for example in Astros vs. Dodgers, where the market resolved to Dodgers even though the Astros won, refunds will be offered by allowing affected shares to be redeemed for $1. Users who participated in such markets will also receive a banner notification explaining how they will be made whole. Additionally, Polymarket may put out a statement on X and Discord.
Refunds are generally only issued before a clarification is posted. Shares purchased after a clarification or after an announcement that a clarification is forthcoming are not eligible for refunds. Traders are advised to proceed at their own risk.
Market Resolution
In cases where refunds are issued, the resolution itself typically remains unchanged. Instead, users on the losing side may be refunded based on the price they paid for their shares. The exact terms of any refund are determined at Polymarket's discretion.
One of the most notable public refund announcements occurred on June 26, 2024, in response to the disputed resolution of the Was Barron Trump involved in $DJT? market. Polymarket posted the following message:
"We firmly believe that UMA got this resolution wrong. We're working on a near-term solution and will announce it today. It's critical to uphold the integrity of the marketplace and pricing. Standby."
This type of intervention is exceptional and typically reserved for cases where Polymarket believes the resolution process has undermined market integrity.
Proposal Irrelevance
If a UMA proposal is not correctly linked to the Polymarket market, for example by referencing the wrong person, event, or condition, UMA voters may still proceed with resolution based on Polymarket's user interface. Separately, Polymarket may choose to issue refunds to users affected by such mismatches.
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