The Berlin Proposal
Event Overview
The first "Yes" proposal in the Zelenskyy suit market followed his May 28 appearance in Berlin. While the Vatican visit functioned as an informal litmus test, this marked the beginning of formal dispute procedures, initiating a new phase in the market’s life cycle.
The Berlin Appearance
Zelenskyy was in Berlin ahead of a NATO coordination summit, where he met with German Chancellor Friedrich Merz. His wardrobe drew immediate attention for being more formal than usual. Photos and footage from AP News and Reuters showed him in a structured black jacket, dark trousers, and black shoes.
Although no tie was visible and the outfit lacked a clearly matching jacket-trouser pairing, some saw it as potentially qualifying. The look sparked active discussion on Polymarket and UMA's Discord channels. Unlike the Vatican appearance, it was not dismissed outright, which led to the first formal proposal process.
Media Coverage and Framing
Coverage of the Berlin outfit remained limited. Only a few outlets directly addressed Zelenskyy’s wardrobe, and most did so briefly or in passing.
"Germany Says It Will Step Up Weapons Support for Ukraine"
Wearing a black suit and a button-down shirt, he was greeted by Mr. Merz, and then a German military band played the national anthems of both countries.
"Zelensky at a meeting with the German Chancellor appeared in an unusual way"
(Translated from Ukrainian) During his visit to Berlin, Volodymyr Zelensky wore a black button-down blazer with pockets, trousers, and a matching shirt. It is worth noting that all the items together look like a suit. (Original Ukrainian used the word "костюм," which broadly refers to any coordinated outfit and does not exclusively mean "suit" in the Western sense.)
"Zelensky to visit Berlin for talks with Chancellor Merz"
Zelensky was seen in Berlin ahead of the NATO summit, appearing in black outerwear more formal than his usual khaki wear.
"EU media surprised Zelensky wore a strict jacket in Berlin"
Judging by the video footage, Zelensky is wearing a rather strict black jacket… not the shapeless swamp-colored clothes he donned before.
Despite a few isolated references, particularly the New York Times phrasing and the Ukrainian-language use of костюм, these were not echoed by other major outlets and did not trigger broader coverage or confirmation. Most reporting focused on diplomatic content, and the outfit lacked clear indicators like lapels, a tie, or confirmed matching components.
The Proposal and Response
On May 29, a user submitted the first "Yes" resolution proposal for the June market, based on the Berlin appearance. This triggered an immediate dispute. Arguments in favor of "Yes" focused on formality, tailoring, and symbolic intent. Some users appealed to stylist interpretation or cited fashion blogs claiming the outfit "looked like" a suit. Others argued that if Zelenskyy considered it a suit, that should be sufficient. These lines of reasoning were not supported by a consensus of credible reporting.
During the dispute discussions, Hart Lambur, cofounder of UMA, publicly emphasized that the market must not resolve to P3 (Unknown / 50-50). Since UMA was founded, P3 has been rarely used and is typically proposed by newer UMA participants or those unfamiliar with the oracle’s resolution framework. It has increasingly been suggested as a way to appease both sides in ambiguous markets, with some traders viewing it as a compromise when evidence is unclear. In this case, Lambur stated that a P3 resolution would be inappropriate, as the market required a clear, evidence-based outcome. Nevertheless, disagreements continued, and active arguments persisted on both sides.
Later that day, Polymarket published a clarification on the market.
Despite calls for further comment, Polymarket issued no formal ruling. The resolution process defaulted to UMA’s governance framework. Discussions resumed based on the Berlin appearance and the market’s standing interpretation.
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