Understanding P3

In the Voting chapter, we discussed that markets on Polymarket can resolve to one of several outcomes: P1 (No), P2 (Yes), P3 (Unknown / 50-50), P4 (Too Early), and Custom Answer (rarely used).

In this section, we look more closely at P3, which is often a source of confusion. In controversial markets, participants sometimes push for a P3 resolution when there is no clear consensus, even when P3 is not the intended or appropriate resolution.

When is P3 appropriate?

P3 is used when a market cannot be resolved objectively or verifiably. It is not meant to settle disagreements by giving both sides half. Mere controversy or disagreement is not enough to justify a P3 resolution.

In some cases, Polymarket explicitly states that a market cannot resolve to P3. When that restriction is present, P3 is not an option. If there is no such restriction, and the resolution criteria are clear and verifiable, the market should resolve to either P1 or P2.

Some caveats

Badly written markets or single-event, dead-on-arrival markets do not resolve to P3. These markets should still resolve based on the facts. In some cases, losses may be refunded if the market was not pulled shortly after creation.

P3 should only be used when there is a genuine lack of objective, verifiable information. It is not a fallback for unclear wording, ambiguous intent, or as a compromise to satisfy all sides. Importantly, markets must not resolve to P3 before the deadline, as there remains a possibility of resolving to P2.

When the community anticipates a P3 resolution, the market price often reflects this by stabilizing around 50 cents per share. This is not a guarantee of a P3 outcome, but it can signal a growing consensus that no definitive answer is possible under the resolution criteria.

In the upcoming chapters, we look at examples where markets ultimately resolved to P3:

And an example where P3 was not considered an acceptable resolution:

PreviousMarket ResolutionNextWas Biden Senile?

Last updated