Argument Summary

Supporters of "Yes" argued that statements from the Trump administration, along with a consensus of reporting, showed that the National Guard had been deployed. They claimed that activation into active duty status constituted deployment, especially since the Guard was already present in Washington, D.C. Some argued that mobilization or support roles satisfied deployment regardless of whether troops carried out public-facing operations. These arguments framed deployment broadly, treating official orders and active duty as a qualifying deployment.

Supporters of "No" pointed to conflicting language across sources, noting that neither activation nor mobilization amounted to deployment. They emphasized that deployment required an assignment to a specific operational mission, which had not occurred in this case. Arguments also drew on the spirit of the market, holding that participants understood deployment to mean more than activation or presence alone. Finally, they argued that Polymarket's creation of a new market confirmed that the conditions for resolution had not been met.

It is also likely that both sides of the argument had some merit. Supporters of "Yes" could reasonably claim that the market was about whether Trump would follow through on his promises and take visible action. Supporters of "No" were justified in stressing that most participants understood deployment to mean more than activation or presence alone.

In reality, most traders were not familiar with the activation–deployment distinction. A key detail is that this was a one-day market, making it unlikely that Trump would both activate and deploy troops within such a short window. Nevertheless, some traders may have believed otherwise, in part because they did not know the difference between activation and deployment.

Ultimately, confusion stemmed from both gaps in participant knowledge and Polymarket's decision to frame the market around imprecise language. By not providing clearer rules or background context, Polymarket left traders to debate technical definitions in real time, which amplified disagreement rather than resolving it.

Coming Up

Having summarized the argument, we now look at how Polymarket stepped in to clarify the market.