Did Trump Deploy?

Market Background and Criteria

On August 3, 2025, former DOGE staffer Edward Coristine, better known as "Big Balls," was allegedly a victim of a carjacking and beating in Washington, D.C. Following the incident, President Trump threatened to federalize the D.C. police if local authorities could not properly manage the city. He posted on Truth Social, "If this continues, I am going to exert my powers, and FEDERALIZE this City. MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN!"

The incident reflected similar threats in early June, when Trump deployed the National Guard in Los Angeles after sustained immigration protests. These warnings and reports of federal coordination fueled speculation he might take executive action in D.C. On Friday, August 9, Trump announced a press conference on crime in D.C., scheduled for Monday, August 11.

On August 10, with speculation over possible federal action in D.C. mounting, Polymarket launched the market Trump deploys National Guard in D.C. by Monday?

For the market to resolve to "Yes," Donald Trump had to deploy National Guard troops on active duty into Washington, D.C., by August 11, 2025, at 11:59 PM ET. Announcements alone would not count, and resolution would rely on official U.S. government sources or a consensus of credible reporting.

Price Movement and Trader Reaction

The market launched at 10:22 pm with "Yes" shares ranging from 35¢ to 50¢ for the next 12 hours. With only a day to resolve, uncertainty remained over whether a qualifying deployment would happen in time.

An hour before the press conference was set to begin, "Yes" shares traded at 40¢.

Trump began the conference by saying "I'm deploying the National Guard to help reestablish law, order and public safety in D.C., and they're going to be allowed to do their job properly." At which point, the price was 94¢.

However, as Trump continued talking, prices fell from 94¢ to 16¢, and within an hour reached an all time low of 7¢.

With the "Yes" shares trading at 7¢, most traders did not believe that the market would resolve to "Yes." Polymarket seemed to agree and created the same market with a August 31 deadline.

The August 31 market launched at 61¢ and quickly climbed above 90¢, as deployment was effectively confirmed. The question was whether it would occur by the end of the day or later in the week.

The First Proposal

At 5:21 pm, someone submitted a proposal for "Yes," but was quickly disputed.

At the time of proposal, "Yes" shares were trading at 24¢. Proposals are typically submitted when share prices are near 100¢, indicating the market is ready for resolution.

In this case, however, prices signaled that traders overwhelmingly did not believe the resolution criteria had been met. Apart from the press conference, the only executive action the President had taken was signing a memo directing the Department of Defense to mobilize the National Guard.

The market responded to the memo by stabilizing prices around 20¢. Afterwards, several news outlets reported that Trump had deployed the National Guard.

The Second Proposal

After the market deadline passed, a different user submitted a proposal of "No." The market was trading at 25¢, with uncertainty over whether Polymarket would clarify whether the event qualified.

Fifteen minutes later, Polymarket posted a clarification stating that the Restoring Law and Order in the District of Columbia memo would qualify as active deployment.

Following the clarification, the order book was cleared and the price of "Yes" surged from 25¢ to 99¢.

The proposal of "No" was disputed.

However, Polymarket's clarification soon set off mixed responses, including heavy criticism. Over the next few days, several users questioned Polymarket's inability to provide adequate clarifications.

Coming Up

This case study will walk through the Trump deploys National Guard in D.C. by Monday? market from its creation through its events, discussions, and disputes. It will examine both sides of the argument and explore discussions on qualifying events and market intentions. It will conclude by proposing solutions for how Polymarket can move forward as a truth-seeking platform and strengthen its oracle.