What Happened?

Before we begin, here's a review of how the events unfolded (Eastern Time).

Time	Event
August 9 at 9:50 am	Trump announces press conference for August 11
August 10 at 10:22 pm	Polymarket launches Trump deploys National Guard in D.C. by Monday?
August 10 at 10:23 pm – August 11 at 12:58 am	Users discuss about what qualifies as deployment
August 11 at 12:58 am	Polymarket issues initial clarification
August 11 at 10:38 am – 11:55 pm	Trump press conference
August 11 at 11:23 am	White House releases Restoring Law and Order in the District of Columbia memorandum
August 11 at 11:50 am	Polymarket launches Trump deploys National Guard in D.C. by August 31?
August 11 at 5:21 pm	Market proposed as "Yes"
August 11 at 5:28 pm	Proposal disputed
August 11 at 5:28 pm – August 12 at 12:00 am	Discussions resume
August 12 at 12:01 am	Market proposed as "No"
August 12 at 12:16 am	Polymarket issues a second clarification
August 12 at 12:19 am	Second proposal disputed
August 12 at 12:19 am – August 13 at 8:00 pm	Polymarket criticized by several users
August 13 at 8:00 pm	Voting begins
August 15 at 8:00 pm	Market resolves

Market Price Action

There were three key instances of volatile price action.

The first spike began about an hour before the press conference, with the price rising from 40¢ to 94¢ during the event.

Shortly after Trump announced the deployment of the National Guard, the price plunged from 94¢ to 7¢ in under an hour.

The second spike followed Polymarket's second clarification, when order books were cleared and the price jumped from 27¢ to 99¢.

Trading took place mostly within two price ranges:

• The price traded between 35¢ and 50¢ from market creation until an hour before the press conference

• The price traded between 15¢ and 40¢ while users debated whether the event qualified or if Trump would make additional qualifying statements before market close

Polymarket's First Mistake

The heart of the controversy centered on the market's wording. The description stated that the market would resolve to "Yes" if Trump deployed National Guard troops into Washington, D.C., on active duty. But in military terminology, "activation" is what places Guard members on active duty. Trump's order mobilized and activated the Guard, meaning they were placed into active duty.

Polymarket, however, repeatedly used the word "deploy," at one point stating that "only the deployment will qualify." This created confusion: activation puts the Guard into active duty, but deployment refers to assigning them to a mission. Because the market never asked whether Trump would activate the Guard and instead relied on the incorrect term "deploy," the result was uncertainty. When the Guard was activated, placed into active duty, and a future deployment was announced, users were split over whether activation alone was sufficient or whether deployment was required.

Coming Up

Having understood what happened, we can now turn to the arguments on both sides, starting with the case for a "Yes" resolution.