The Spirit of the Market

There were also disagreements over the spirit of the market.

Trump Taking Action

Flash argued that the purpose of the market was to determine whether Trump would take action to federalize the D.C. National Guard. This interpretation is supported by the market's timing, as it was created after several days of Trump publicly threatening to federalize D.C. The market was also short-lived, lasting essentially a single day.

Flash added that while the president determines activation, the media determines deployment. However, this line of reasoning is flimsy. In this case, the media narrative conflicted with the official source, and the official source prevails. Moreover, there was no clear consensus in the reporting.

Activation vs. Deployment

Betterletter123 asked users to consider what most people would imagine if told that soldiers had been "deployed" in a city.

Jacob argued that "activation" and "deployment" describe the same process but differ by context, with "activation" used domestically and "deployment" used abroad. However, this is not true.

Domer responded that many people use "deploy" colloquially without regard to official definitions.

National Guard Order

BeegYoshi referenced a D.C. National Guard order indicating a reporting date of Tuesday, August 12, or as otherwise directed.

When investigating the source of the memo, it was determined to be an alleged leak reported by D.C.-based journalist Ken Klippenstein. Leaked documents are not treated as valid for resolving a market.

Summary

Several users disagreed over the market's intent. Some argued that it was tied to Trump's threats to federalize the Guard, while others stressed the distinction between "activation" and "deployment." The discussion also noted that many people use "deploy" in a colloquial sense, which added further ambiguity. Overall, the arguments highlighted the vagueness of the language and the lack of authoritative confirmation.

Coming Up

Having examined the disagreements over the spirit of the market, we now turn to the most conclusive evidence for a "No" resolution: Polymarket's decision to create a new market.