Market Price

To lower the risk of losing your first proposal, follow these rules.

Consider the market price

The market price can indicate whether traders believe a market has been resolved. If the price is not near 99¢, it may suggest the market isn't ready to be proposed.

Example: Katy Perry and Justin Trudeau confirmed relationship by October 31? peaked around 40¢, suggesting it was too early to propose.

Consider the price action

Volatile price action may indicate that a market is not ready to be resolved. Sudden spikes or crashes often reflect uncertainty rather than confirmation.

Example: In Andy Byron out as Astronomer CEO by next Friday, the price spiked from 55¢ to 90¢ but then quickly fell, signaling that traders did not believe the market could be resolved.

Be careful of free proposals

Some markets might look ready but aren't. Be careful of markets sitting around 95% for an extended time yet still unresolved.

Example: How many jobs added in September? seemed like a free proposal in November. However, its resolution source was the BLS. Due to the government shutdown, the BLS data wasn't released yet, so the market could not resolve.