Rules

Every market comes with rules that explain how it will be settled.

In most cases, the rules are written in four parts:

1. Background Context: Explains the background of the market.

2. Resolution Criteria: Defines what must happen for the market to resolve to Yes.

3. Additional Rules: Clarifies what counts, what doesn't, and how unexpected cases are handled.

4. Resolution Source: Lists the official source(s) that will confirm the result.

Let's use How many Gold Cards will Trump sell in 2025? as an example.

Let's break this ruleset into its parts:

Background Context: Donald Trump has announced a "Gold Card" plan to offer a pathway to U.S. citizenship in exchange for a $5 million payment.

Resolution Criteria: This market will resolve according to the number of individuals who purchase a "Gold Card" by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET.

Additional Rules:

• Any individual participating in a new program created after February 26 by the Trump Administration that is either referred to as a "Gold Card," or involves a new pathway to U.S. citizenship, work permits, or other legal residency status in exchange for payments or investment, will qualify.

• If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, the market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

Resolution Source: Official information from the Trump Administration, with a backup source being a consensus of credible reporting.

More Examples

Now that we've seen one example, let's look at a few more.

Exhibit A

Top Spotify Artist 2025

Background Context: Spotify releases an annual report of its most streamed artist, typically as part of Spotify Wrapped. This market refers to the most streamed Spotify artist for 2025.

Resolution Criteria: If one of the above-listed artists is named the most streamed Spotify artist for 2025, the market will resolve to Yes. Otherwise, it will resolve to No.

Additional Rules: If Spotify does not release the top artist for 2025 by January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to No.

Resolution Source: Official information from Spotify.

Exhibit B

Will tariffs generate >$250b in 2025?

Background Context: The U.S. government collected $82.2b in customs duties in FY 2025.

Resolution Criteria: This market will resolve to Yes if the value of costumes duties collected in FY 2025 according to the Financial Report of the United States Government published by the Treasury Department for FY 2025 is greater than $250b. Otherwise this market will resolve to No.

Additional Rules: If the Treasury Department does not publish relevant data for FY 2025 by February 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to No.

Resolution Source: The Treasury Department.

Exhibit C

Fed decision in October?

Background Context: The Federal Reserve sets the target federal funds rate as a range, with the upper bound decided at Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.

Resolution Criteria: This market will resolve to the change, in basis points, of the upper bound of the target federal funds rate compared to its level prior to the October 2025 FOMC meeting.

Additional Rules:

• If the rate is changed to a level not shown in the market options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 bps (for example, a 12.5 bps move counts as 25 bps).

• The market may resolve as soon as the FOMC's October statement is issued.

• If no statement is released by the end of the next scheduled meeting, the market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.

Resolution Source: The FOMC statement from its October 28–29, 2025 meeting. A backup source will be the Federal Reserve's official website.