What Are Prediction Markets?

Prediction markets are platforms where people trade on the probability of a real-world event happening. Each market asks a yes-or-no question, and the price reflects what traders believe the odds are.

Origin

Prediction markets began with election betting in the United States. In the late 1980s, the Iowa Electronic Markets let people trade on presidential races. Over time, the idea expanded beyond politics into areas like sports, finance, and culture.

In the Media

News outlets such as The Wall Street Journal, Bloomberg, and CNBC regularly cite prediction market odds in their coverage. Polymarket called the presidential election hours before traditional media. Kalshi and Polymarket are the leading platforms, with millions of users and billions of dollars traded.

Why Use Prediction Markets?

Prediction markets offer benefits that traditional polls or news sources cannot:

• As a News Source: Markets provide real-time odds, turning vague headlines into clear probabilities.

• Forecasting Ahead: Prices can signal outcomes before mainstream media reports on them.

• Collective Intelligence: Market prices reflect the combined knowledge of many people.

• Targeted Events: Traders can focus on specific outcomes without being exposed to unrelated risks.

Predictify Everything

Prediction markets started with election betting and expanded into sports, climate, culture, and finance. They are a new asset class: contracts that let people trade directly on real-world events. The end goal is to let people bet on anything.