# Dead-on-Arrival Markets

A **dead-on-arrival (DOA) market** is one that's resolved the moment it's created because a qualifying event has already happened. There is nothing left to predict or trade on, so the market is effectively over before it starts.

### Why Markets Can't Be DOA

Prediction markets must always be **forward-looking**. If the outcome is already decided, there is nothing to predict. DOA markets also give an unfair advantage to anyone who knows the event already occurred, allowing them to trade with certainty and distort prices.

### Events Before Market Creation

To avoid DOA situations, anything that happens **before a market's creation** does not count toward its resolution. If an event occurred even an hour before launch, it cannot be used to resolve the market. Only events that happen **after creation** count. 

*Examples*: *Will Biden issue more pardons than Trump?* — Polymarket clarified that pardons issued before market creation would not count. Including them would have made the market instantly resolved.

*Next coin listed on Coinbase? (POPCAT, MOODENG, Pnut)* — If MOODENG was listed minutes before market creation, it would be removed from the options. POPCAT and Pnut would remain since their outcomes were still undecided.

### Markets Released Too Late

Sometimes, Polymarket may release a market that's **dead-on-arrival** because it was created earlier but released too late. In these cases, Polymarket may remove the market and refund traders. In other situations, it may allow the market to continue with a clarification explaining that the event will not count toward resolution.is single 

*Example*: Polymarket released *SCOTUS agrees to hear a conversion therapy ban case in 2025?* hours after the Supreme Court had already agreed to hear the case, making the market dead-on-arrival.

### The Two Types of DOA Markets

DOA markets usually fall into two categories:

#### Single-Qualifying Event

There is only one event that could resolve the market. If it happened before market creation, it cannot happen again. DOA markets with a single qualifying event are generally refunded.

*Example*: *Supreme Court unblocks Alien Enemies Act?* — If the Supreme Court already unblocked the Alien Enemies Act before market creation, it cannot happen again. 

#### Multiple-Qualifying Events

There may be multiple-qualifying events that could resolve the market. A qualifying event happening before market creation does not prevent another qualifying event from occurring. 

However, if one qualifying event has already happened, the chances of another happening drop significantly. DOA markets with multiple-qualifying events are generally not refunded.

*Example*: *Earthquake 8.0 or above before September?* — If an 8.0 earthquake occurred an hour before market creation, another is possible but much less likely.

### More Examples

Here are some more examples of **single-qualifying** and **multiple-qualifying** DOA markets.

| Single-Qualifying Event                                                                                                                                      | Multiple-Qualifying Event                                                                                                                                                  |
| ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ | -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- |
| <p><strong>Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2025</strong><br>If it was awarded, it cannot be awarded again.</p>                                                      | <p><strong>Will Kanye launch a coin in 2025?</strong><br>If Kanye already launched one before creation, another launch is possible but far less likely.</p>                |
| <p><strong>Will Coinbase's TBA app launch before October?</strong><br>If it launched before market creation, it cannot launch again.</p>                     | <p><strong>Will Coinbase US perps offer more than 10x leverage?</strong><br>If leverage was already raised before creation, another raise is possible but less likely.</p> |
| <p><strong>Will the Supreme Court overturn gay marriage in 2025?</strong><br>If it was overturned before market creation, it cannot be overturned again.</p> | <p><strong>Obama in jail in 2025?</strong><br>If Obama was already jailed before creation, he could be jailed again but the odds drop sharply.</p>                         |

### Review

To review, single-qualifying DOA markets are often removed and/or refunded, whereas multiple-qualifying event markets aren't necessarily DOA. In all cases, past events don't count toward resolution.

<figure><img src="/files/GgL4iAh6BZhPftqI4NNv" alt=""><figcaption></figcaption></figure>


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