Rule Pitfalls
Here are the most common rule pitfalls to watch out for when trading.
Market titles can be misleading
Market titles may oversimplify or fail to reflect the nuance of the resolution criteria.
Examples: In Will Trump jail Elon Musk?, the title suggested Trump sending Elon Musk to jail, but the rules required Elon Musk actually serving jail time, regardless of who sent him there.
In What will Powell say during July Press Conference?, one of the outcomes was "Step/Stepping Down." Some thought Powell saying the word "step" would qualify, but Polymarket clarified that only "step down" or "stepping down" counted.
Rules can be unclear
Sometimes, rules are poorly worded, vague, or ambiguous. They may fail to define key terms or qualifying events, which opens the door to disputes.
Examples: In Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?, the rules never defined "suit." Some traders counted any formal attire, while others argued only a traditional Western-style suit qualified. The lack of clarity led to traders arguing over what counts.
In Biden senile during the debate?, the rules never defined "senile." Some traders pointed to Biden appearing confused, while others argued that was opinion-based. The market ultimately resolved to 50/50.
Similar markets have different resolution criteria
Markets with nearly identical titles can still have very different resolution criteria and resolution sources.
Example: In Ukraine agrees to Trump mineral deal before April?, the market resolves to Yes if the countries agree to a deal. Its resolution source is the US and Ukrainian governments.
In Trump x Ukraine mineral deal signed before June?, the rules require a formally signed deal before the deadline. Its resolution sources include the US and Ukrainian governments and a consensus of credible reporting.
Resolution sources can be unreliable
The listed resolution source is inaccurate, inconsistently maintained, or fundamentally flawed.
Examples: In Will DOGE cut $3B of DEI contracts before March?, the designated source (doge-tracker.com) changed its data after the market went live. This made it impossible to determine a clear outcome, and the market resolved to 50/50 with refunds issued.
In Lord Miles completes 40-day water fast in the desert?, Lord Miles initially livestreamed his fast, but later turned off the stream. This made the designated source unreliable and raised doubts about how the market could resolve.
Market titles are later edited
Market titles may be later edited to better reflect the rules, but resolution is always based on the rules.
Example: In Yoon in jail before September?, the resolution criteria required Yoon's arrest or detention by law enforcement. The title was later updated to Yoon arrested before September? to better reflect the rules, but the criteria did not change.
Market thumbnails are illustrative
Market thumbnails are illustrative only and have no impact on how the market should resolve.
Example: Most markets use a stock photo of a country flag or public figure.
In Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?, the image showed him in formal attire, but the rules, not the image, defined the resolution criteria.
Polymarket social media does not decide resolution
Polymarket's social media activity is not a basis for resolution. The social media team operates separately from the Markets team.
Example: After the Epstein files were released, Polymarket's official X account posted, "It contains NONE of the names of Epstein's associates." The Markets team later clarified in the market Who will be named in Epstein files by June 30? that names of associates were in fact included.