Natural Disasters
Natural disaster markets are based on whether a qualifying disaster occurs within a defined timeframe.
They often track earthquakes, hurricanes, floods, wildfires, or even meteors and rely on official scientific agencies for resolution data.
How do they work?
Natural disaster markets depend on specific conditions being met. Each market defines what counts as a qualifying event.
Conditions can include:
Number of events Example: Two or more qualifying earthquakes.
Intensity Example: Earthquake with a magnitude of 7.0+.
Location Example: Within the contiguous United States.
Resolution Sources
Typical resolution sources for natural disaster markets include:
Earthquakes: United States Geological Survey (USGS)
Hurricanes: National Hurricane Center (NHC) advisories
Wildfires: State forestry or fire protection agencies such as CAL FIRE
Meteors: NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository
Always check the market's listed source — it may differ between markets.
What should I be aware of?
Category and intensity levels are often defined by official agencies (e.g., NHC, USGS, NASA).
Timing or classification updates can delay resolution.
Markets may remain open for up to 24 hours after an event for data corrections.
Some markets use another credible source as backup if data is delayed.
Examples
Let's go over some examples of each type of natural disaster market.
Resolution Criteria: One or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0+ occur anywhere between October 11 and 31, 2025.
Resolution Source: USGS Earthquake Hazards Program
Data Availability Clause: Market may remain open until November 7, 2025 if an event hasn't yet appeared on the source. Otherwise, another credible source will be used.
Data Finalization Clause: Market remains open for 24 hours after registration for magnitude revisions.
Resolution Criteria: Any named tropical system makes landfall in the contiguous U.S. as a Category 5 hurricane between June 1 and November 30, 2025.
Resolution Source: National Hurricane Center Advisories
Data Availability Clause: Market may remain open until December 7, 2025 if the storm hasn't yet been logged.
Data Finalization Clause: Market resolves based on initial advisory, regardless of later reanalysis.
Resolution Criteria: The Palisades Fire in California burns less than 20,000 acres in total.
Resolution Source: California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection (CAL FIRE)
Data Availability Clause: If the fire is still active by December 31, 2025, the market resolves based on total acreage burned as of that date.
Backup Source: If CAL FIRE data becomes unavailable, another credible source will be used.
Resolution Criteria: A natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy ≥ 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between May 28 and Dec 31, 2025.
Resolution Source: NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data
Data Availability Clause: If data is incomplete by Feb 28, 2026, or NASA's source becomes unavailable, resolution may rely on ESA, IAWN, DoD, or a scientific consensus (e.g., NASA press release).
Data Finalization Clause: Object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; artificial reentries do not qualify.