> For the complete documentation index, see [llms.txt](https://polymarketguide.gitbook.io/polymarketguide/llms.txt). Markdown versions of documentation pages are available by appending `.md` to page URLs; this page is available as [Markdown](https://polymarketguide.gitbook.io/polymarketguide/markets/categories/natural-disasters.md).

# Natural Disasters

Natural disaster markets resolve based on whether a qualifying event occurs within a defined timeframe. These can include earthquakes, hurricanes, floods, wildfires, and meteors.

### How do they work?

Natural disaster markets define the conditions that determine what counts as a qualifying event.

Conditions can include:

* **Number of events**\
  *Example*: Two or more qualifying earthquakes.
* **Intensity**\
  *Example*: Earthquake with a magnitude of 7.0+.
* **Location**\
  *Example*: Within the contiguous United States.
* **Timeframe**\
  *Example*: Between June 1 and June 30, 2026.

### Resolution Sources

Common resolution sources for natural disaster markets include:

* **Earthquakes:** United States Geological Survey (USGS)
* **Hurricanes:** National Hurricane Center (NHC) advisories
* **Wildfires:** State forestry or fire protection agencies such as CAL FIRE
* **Meteors:** NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data

Always check the **market's listed source** — it can affect how the market will resolve.

<figure><img src="https://3511841878-files.gitbook.io/~/files/v0/b/gitbook-x-prod.appspot.com/o/spaces%2FwmHFi7NV8gmAN3L4jVKb%2Fuploads%2F0bJ8AuLodTqH66b9Mfut%2Fimage.png?alt=media&amp;token=0c856ea0-2e18-4941-b938-04bb045b8905" alt=""><figcaption></figcaption></figure>

### What should I be aware of?

* **Category and intensity levels** may depend on official agency definitions.
* **Timing or classification updates** can delay resolution.
* **Data corrections or revisions** may affect the final result.
* **Backup sources** may be used if the listed source is unavailable or delayed.

<figure><img src="https://3511841878-files.gitbook.io/~/files/v0/b/gitbook-x-prod.appspot.com/o/spaces%2FwmHFi7NV8gmAN3L4jVKb%2Fuploads%2FWGs1B8mwh3VglVE8dHGp%2Fimage.png?alt=media&amp;token=25f0d6e5-294a-4be2-97ea-808d1926c782" alt=""><figcaption></figcaption></figure>

### Examples

Here are examples of how rulesets are structured:

{% tabs %}
{% tab title="Earthquake" %}

<figure><img src="https://3511841878-files.gitbook.io/~/files/v0/b/gitbook-x-prod.appspot.com/o/spaces%2FwmHFi7NV8gmAN3L4jVKb%2Fuploads%2FRd79rhs61hro7NiA2B11%2Fimage.png?alt=media&amp;token=838c97c8-44a8-4f59-bd4e-1e08e0f7351b" alt=""><figcaption></figcaption></figure>

**Resolution Criteria:** One or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0+ occur anywhere on Earth by August 31, 2026.

**Resolution Source:** USGS Earthquake Hazards Program

**Data Finalization Clause:** After a qualifying earthquake is registered, the market remains open for 24 hours for magnitude revisions. The latest data is then used.

**Data Availability Clause:** If a qualifying earthquake has occurred but has not appeared on the source, the market may remain open for seven days. If it still has not appeared, another credible source will be used.
{% endtab %}

{% tab title="Hurricane" %}

<figure><img src="https://3511841878-files.gitbook.io/~/files/v0/b/gitbook-x-prod.appspot.com/o/spaces%2FwmHFi7NV8gmAN3L4jVKb%2Fuploads%2FIDCQeMk9xTrMMSWT2L1h%2Fimage.png?alt=media&amp;token=e6bc225c-6bbe-4c4a-8d6f-a8013f1b142a" alt=""><figcaption></figcaption></figure>

**Resolution Criteria:** A storm makes landfall in the contiguous United States as a Category 5 hurricane by December 31, 2026.

**Resolution Source:** National Hurricane Center Advisories

**Additional Rules:** Category 5 requires maximum sustained winds of at least 157 mph, and landfall occurs when the storm's surface center crosses the coastline.

**Data Finalization Clause:** An initial NHC advisory confirming a qualifying landfall may be used even if later retracted. Subsequent corrections or updates may also establish a qualifying landfall.
{% endtab %}

{% tab title="Wildfire" %}

<figure><img src="https://3511841878-files.gitbook.io/~/files/v0/b/gitbook-x-prod.appspot.com/o/spaces%2FwmHFi7NV8gmAN3L4jVKb%2Fuploads%2FIHJT9fd3jqUwnsLkDwhd%2Fimage.png?alt=media&amp;token=94f1f1da-dbfb-431d-a577-809941afd715" alt=""><figcaption></figcaption></figure>

**Resolution Criteria:** The Palisades Fire in California burns less than 20,000 acres in total.

**Resolution Source:** California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection (CAL FIRE)

**Additional Rules:** If the fire is still active on December 31, 2025, resolution uses the total acreage burned as of that date.

**Backup Source:** If CAL FIRE data becomes unavailable, another credible source will be used.
{% endtab %}

{% tab title="Meteor" %}

<figure><img src="https://3511841878-files.gitbook.io/~/files/v0/b/gitbook-x-prod.appspot.com/o/spaces%2FwmHFi7NV8gmAN3L4jVKb%2Fuploads%2F4cB7RROjwIicReBEBBIj%2Fimage.png?alt=media&amp;token=4716f159-7b87-4075-b2fb-26cce1618164" alt=""><figcaption></figcaption></figure>

**Resolution Criteria:** A natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy of at least 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent during 2026.

**Resolution Source:** NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data

**Additional Rules:** The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; artificial objects and reentry vehicles do not qualify.

**Data Availability Clause:** If the dataset is incomplete by February 28, 2027, or becomes permanently unavailable, resolution may rely on sources such as ESA, IAWN, the U.S. Department of Defense, or a scientific consensus.
{% endtab %}
{% endtabs %}