> For the complete documentation index, see [llms.txt](https://polymarketguide.gitbook.io/polymarketguide/llms.txt). Markdown versions of documentation pages are available by appending `.md` to page URLs; this page is available as [Markdown](https://polymarketguide.gitbook.io/polymarketguide/markets/categories/natural-disasters.md).

# Natural Disasters

Natural disaster markets are based on whether a qualifying disaster occurs within a defined timeframe. 

They often track earthquakes, hurricanes, floods, wildfires, or even meteors and rely on official scientific agencies for resolution data.

### How do they work?

Natural disaster markets depend on specific conditions being met. Each market defines what counts as a qualifying event.

Conditions can include:

* **Number of events**\
  *Example:* Two or more qualifying earthquakes.
* **Intensity**\
  *Example:* Earthquake with a magnitude of 7.0+.
* **Location**\
  *Example:* Within the contiguous United States.

<figure><img src="/files/qnpmCgcLWk1qUXPeILWe" alt=""><figcaption></figcaption></figure>

### Resolution Sources

Typical resolution sources for natural disaster markets include:

* **Earthquakes:** United States Geological Survey (USGS)
* **Hurricanes:** National Hurricane Center (NHC) advisories
* **Wildfires:** State forestry or fire protection agencies such as CAL FIRE
* **Meteors:** NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository

Always check the **market's listed source** — it may differ between markets.

<figure><img src="/files/wVxMCq4191MqjVMqLzds" alt=""><figcaption></figcaption></figure>

### What should I be aware of?

* **Category and intensity levels** are often defined by official agencies (e.g., NHC, USGS, NASA).
* **Timing or classification updates** can delay resolution.
* Markets may remain open for up to **24 hours after an event** for data corrections.
* Some markets use **another credible source as backup** if data is delayed.

<figure><img src="/files/tEyPjsALKGXaP3c3fsjy" alt=""><figcaption></figcaption></figure>

### Examples

Let's go over some examples of each type of natural disaster market.

{% tabs %}
{% tab title="Earthquake" %}

<figure><img src="/files/wGiZ0AXU9oVA5ppFEufs" alt=""><figcaption></figcaption></figure>

**Resolution Criteria**: One or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0+ occur anywhere between October 11 and 31, 2025.

**Resolution Source**: [USGS Earthquake Hazards Program](https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef)

**Data Availability Clause:** Market may remain open until November 7, 2025 if an event hasn't yet appeared on the source. Otherwise, another credible source will be used.&#x20;

**Data Finalization Clause:** Market remains open for 24 hours after registration for magnitude revisions.
{% endtab %}

{% tab title="Hurricane" %}

<figure><img src="/files/OGyREzTYXbxFHR5lhjNB" alt=""><figcaption></figcaption></figure>

**Resolution Criteria:** Any named tropical system makes landfall in the contiguous U.S. as a Category 5 hurricane between June 1 and November 30, 2025.

**Resolution Source:** [National Hurricane Center Advisories](https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2025/)

**Data Availability Clause:** Market may remain open until December 7, 2025 if the storm hasn't yet been logged.

**Data Finalization Clause:** Market resolves based on initial advisory, regardless of later reanalysis.
{% endtab %}

{% tab title="Wildfire" %}

<figure><img src="/files/AzNvkkgru2ZETIGbGbSp" alt=""><figcaption></figcaption></figure>

**Resolution Criteria:** The Palisades Fire in California burns less than 20,000 acres in total.

**Resolution Source:** [California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection (CAL FIRE)](https://www.fire.ca.gov/)

**Data Availability Clause:** If the fire is still active by December 31, 2025, the market resolves based on total acreage burned as of that date.

**Backup Source:** If CAL FIRE data becomes unavailable, another credible source will be used.
{% endtab %}

{% tab title="Meteor" %}

<figure><img src="/files/0IeZodsWmicCUTzunCsB" alt=""><figcaption></figcaption></figure>

**Resolution Criteria**: A natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy ≥ 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between May 28 and Dec 31, 2025.

**Resolution Source**: [NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data](https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/)

**Data Availability Clause**: If data is incomplete by Feb 28, 2026, or NASA's source becomes unavailable, resolution may rely on ESA, IAWN, DoD, or a scientific consensus (e.g., NASA press release).

**Data Finalization Clause**: Object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; artificial reentries do not qualify.
{% endtab %}
{% endtabs %}