# Market Types

There are several types of multi-outcome markets.&#x20;

### Negative Risk Markets

Some **multi-outcome markets** are **negative risk (negRisk)**, meaning **only one outcome** in the market can resolve to **Yes**.

*Example*: In *Presidential Election Winner 2028* only one person can win the election. In negRisk markets, the price of all Yes contracts usually **adds up to $1 in total**.

<figure><img src="https://3511841878-files.gitbook.io/~/files/v0/b/gitbook-x-prod.appspot.com/o/spaces%2FwmHFi7NV8gmAN3L4jVKb%2Fuploads%2FXvLbZBhInykP35szRSc3%2Fimage.png?alt=media&#x26;token=87793099-c662-44b3-be2c-d88b463e21c8" alt=""><figcaption></figcaption></figure>

### Not Negative Risk Markets

Multi-outcome markets can also be **not negRisk**, meaning **more than one outcome in the market can resolve to Yes**.

*Example:* In *Who will Trump meet with in 2025?*, Trump could meet multiple people, so **multiple outcomes may resolve to Yes**.

<figure><img src="https://3511841878-files.gitbook.io/~/files/v0/b/gitbook-x-prod.appspot.com/o/spaces%2FwmHFi7NV8gmAN3L4jVKb%2Fuploads%2Fd6a6vfEt8EkORV8Nb5tF%2Fimage.png?alt=media&#x26;token=ef7c04f9-d90b-42b6-855c-90ddf26fe0fc" alt=""><figcaption></figcaption></figure>

### Directional Markets

Some markets are **directional (up/down)**. These markets resolve to Yes if a value ends up **above or below a specified threshold**. Directional markets use language such as **crosses**, **at least**, and **above** or **below**.&#x20;

**Directional markets are not negRisk**, because **multiple thresholds can be crossed**, allowing more than one outcome in the same market to resolve to Yes.

<figure><img src="https://3511841878-files.gitbook.io/~/files/v0/b/gitbook-x-prod.appspot.com/o/spaces%2FwmHFi7NV8gmAN3L4jVKb%2Fuploads%2F9ALxAjBsknSDZXgRDtH8%2Fimage.png?alt=media&#x26;token=c7a3908a-3b9b-4c2a-a7ba-acc6d7bda5e1" alt=""><figcaption></figcaption></figure>

Directional markets often include **counter-based** markets.&#x20;

*Example*: *Measles cases in the U.S. before 2026?* resolves from the CDC case counter. Each threshold crossed (1,600, 1,700, 1,750, etc.) resolves to Yes.

<figure><img src="https://3511841878-files.gitbook.io/~/files/v0/b/gitbook-x-prod.appspot.com/o/spaces%2FwmHFi7NV8gmAN3L4jVKb%2Fuploads%2FFbqIflH7kwtxkxnfGp1r%2Fimage.png?alt=media&#x26;token=86952067-a622-4dc6-9b71-544890458dbc" alt=""><figcaption></figcaption></figure>

### Bracketed Markets

Some markets use **brackets of values.** Bracketed markets are **negRisk,** since only one range can resolve to Yes.

*Example: # of views of next MrBeast video on day 1?* uses brackets like <25m, 25m–30m, 30m–35m.

<figure><img src="https://3511841878-files.gitbook.io/~/files/v0/b/gitbook-x-prod.appspot.com/o/spaces%2FwmHFi7NV8gmAN3L4jVKb%2Fuploads%2FAEk4jTt4Yukh2TAvckfR%2Fimage.png?alt=media&#x26;token=4fa31b8e-109d-4145-8227-0697422500ed" alt=""><figcaption></figcaption></figure>

#### Directional vs. Bracketed Markets

Events based on numerical values are usually structured as either a **bracketed** market or a **directional** market, not both.

Here’s the same event shown side by side: **directional** vs. **bracketed**.

{% tabs %}
{% tab title="Directional" %}
**Pump.fun market cap (FDV) above... one day after launch?**

<figure><img src="https://3511841878-files.gitbook.io/~/files/v0/b/gitbook-x-prod.appspot.com/o/spaces%2FwmHFi7NV8gmAN3L4jVKb%2Fuploads%2FYt8UnEQdmh7Nl0xz9sY7%2Fimage.png?alt=media&#x26;token=d3b26db2-6d44-46ff-87bc-dadb78245aa0" alt=""><figcaption></figcaption></figure>

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Pump.fun's token is greater than $4,000,000,000 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No."
{% endtab %}

{% tab title="Bracketed" %}
**Pump.fun market cap (FDV) one day after launch?**

<figure><img src="https://3511841878-files.gitbook.io/~/files/v0/b/gitbook-x-prod.appspot.com/o/spaces%2FwmHFi7NV8gmAN3L4jVKb%2Fuploads%2FZn1E6NTKzg8t3D0i6Tfz%2Fimage.png?alt=media&#x26;token=ed2d2815-547a-4a84-b492-53f180d79fff" alt=""><figcaption></figcaption></figure>

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Pump.fun’s token is between $4,000,000,000 (inclusive) and $6,000,000,000 (exclusive) 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No.”
{% endtab %}
{% endtabs %}

### Review

To review, here are some examples of each type of market:

| negRisk                            | Not negRisk                                      | Directional                                              | Bracketed                                          |
| ---------------------------------- | ------------------------------------------------ | -------------------------------------------------------- | -------------------------------------------------- |
| 2026 NBA Champion                  | Which countries will Donald Trump visit in 2025? | How high will inflation get in 2025?                     | Elon Musk # tweets in October 2025?                |
| Nobel Peace Prize 2025             | What will happen before GTA VI?                  | When will Bitcoin hit $150k?                             | How many Gold Cards will Trump sell this year?     |
| First leader out of power in 2025? | What will Trump say this week?                   | Pump.fun market cap (FDV) above... one day after launch? | How many Executive Orders will Trump sign in July? |
