Market Types

There are several types of multi-outcome markets.

Negative Risk Markets

Some multi-outcome markets are negative risk (negRisk), meaning only one outcome in the market can resolve to Yes.

Example: In Presidential Election Winner 2028 only one person can win the election. In negRisk markets, the price of all Yes contracts usually adds up to $1 in total.

Not Negative Risk Markets

Multi-outcome markets can also be not negRisk, meaning more than one outcome in the market can resolve to Yes.

Example: In Who will Trump meet with in 2025?, Trump could meet multiple people, so multiple outcomes may resolve to Yes.

Directional Markets

Some markets are directional (up/down). These markets resolve to Yes if a value ends up above or below a specified threshold. Directional markets use language such as crosses, at least, and above or below.

Directional markets are not negRisk, because multiple thresholds can be crossed, allowing more than one outcome in the same market to resolve to Yes.

Directional markets often include counter-based markets.

Example: Measles cases in the U.S. before 2026? resolves from the CDC case counter. Each threshold crossed (1,600, 1,700, 1,750, etc.) resolves to Yes.

Bracketed Markets

Some markets use brackets of values. Bracketed markets are negRisk, since only one range can resolve to Yes.

Example: # of views of next MrBeast video on day 1? uses brackets like <25m, 25m–30m, 30m–35m.

Directional vs. Bracketed Markets

Events based on numerical values are usually structured as either a bracketed market or a directional market, not both.

Here’s the same event shown side by side: directional vs. bracketed.

Directional

Pump.fun market cap (FDV) above... one day after launch?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Pump.fun's token is greater than $4,000,000,000 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No."

Bracketed

Pump.fun market cap (FDV) one day after launch?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Pump.fun’s token is between $4,000,000,000 (inclusive) and $6,000,000,000 (exclusive) 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No.”

Review

To review, here are some examples of each type of market:

negRisk	Not negRisk	Directional	Bracketed
2026 NBA Champion	Which countries will Donald Trump visit in 2025?	How high will inflation get in 2025?	Elon Musk # tweets in October 2025?
Nobel Peace Prize 2025	What will happen before GTA VI?	When will Bitcoin hit $150k?	How many Gold Cards will Trump sell this year?
First leader out of power in 2025?	What will Trump say this week?	Pump.fun market cap (FDV) above... one day after launch?	How many Executive Orders will Trump sign in July?