Market Types
Multi-outcome markets can be structured in several ways.
Negative Risk Markets
Some multi-outcome markets are negative risk (negRisk), meaning only one outcome in the market can resolve to Yes.
Example: In Presidential Election Winner 2028, only one person can win the election. In negRisk markets, the combined price of all Yes contracts usually adds up to about $1.
Non-negRisk Markets
Multi-outcome markets can also be not negRisk, meaning more than one outcome in the market can resolve to Yes.
Example: In Who will Trump meet with in 2025?, Trump could meet multiple people, so multiple outcomes may resolve to Yes.
Directional Markets
Some numerical markets are directional (up/down). These markets resolve based on whether a value reaches or ends up above or below a specified threshold.
Directional markets often use language such as crosses, at least, above, or below.
Because multiple thresholds can be crossed, directional markets are generally not negRisk.
Directional markets often include counter-based markets.
Example: Measles cases in the U.S. before 2026? resolves from the CDC case counter. Each threshold crossed (1,600, 1,700, 1,750, etc.) resolves to Yes.
Bracketed Markets
Some numerical markets divide possible values into brackets or ranges.
Because only one range can contain the final value, bracketed markets are generally negRisk.
Example: # of views of next MrBeast video on day 1? uses brackets like <25m, 25m–30m, 30m–35m.
Directional vs. Bracketed Markets
Here's the same event structured both ways:
Pump.fun market cap (FDV) above... one day after launch?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Pump.fun's token is greater than $4,000,000,000 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No."
Pump.fun market cap (FDV) one day after launch?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Pump.fun's token is between $4,000,000,000 (inclusive) and $6,000,000,000 (exclusive) 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No."
Review
To review, here are some examples of each market structure:
2026 NBA Champion
Which countries will Donald Trump visit in 2026?
How high will inflation get in 2026?
Elon Musk # tweets in October 2026?
Nobel Peace Prize 2026
What will happen before GTA VI?
When will Bitcoin hit $150k?
How many Gold Cards will Trump sell this year?
First leader out of power in 2026?
What will Trump say this week?
Pump.fun market cap (FDV) above... one day after launch?
How many Executive Orders will Trump sign in July?
Directional markets are usually non-negRisk, while bracketed markets are usually negRisk.