> For the complete documentation index, see [llms.txt](https://polymarketguide.gitbook.io/polymarketguide/llms.txt). Markdown versions of documentation pages are available by appending `.md` to page URLs; this page is available as [Markdown](https://polymarketguide.gitbook.io/polymarketguide/markets/dead-on-arrival-markets.md). # Dead-on-Arrival Markets A **dead-on-arrival (DOA) market** is one whose outcome is already decided when it's created because a qualifying event has already happened. There is nothing left to predict or trade on, so the market is effectively over before it starts. ### Why DOA Markets Are a Problem Prediction markets are meant to be **forward-looking**. If the outcome is already decided, there is nothing to predict. DOA markets also give an unfair advantage to anyone who knows the event already occurred, allowing them to trade with certainty and distort prices. ### Events Before Market Creation To avoid DOA situations, events that happen **before market creation** generally do not count toward resolution. If an event occurred even minutes before creation, it generally cannot be used to resolve the market. Only events that happen **after creation** count. *Examples*: * *Will Biden issue more pardons than Trump?* — Polymarket clarified that pardons issued before market creation would not count. Including them would have made the market immediately resolved. * *Next coin listed on Coinbase? (POPCAT, MOODENG, Pnut)* — If MOODENG was listed minutes before market creation, it would be removed from the options. POPCAT and Pnut would remain since their outcomes were still undecided. ### Markets Released Too Late Sometimes, Polymarket may release a market that's **dead-on-arrival** because it was created earlier but released too late. In these cases, Polymarket may **remove and refund the market** or issue a **clarification** explaining that the earlier event does not count. *Example*: Polymarket released *SCOTUS agrees to hear a conversion therapy ban case in 2025?* hours after the Supreme Court had already agreed to hear the case, making the market dead-on-arrival. ### Single vs. Multiple-Qualifying Events DOA markets usually fall into two categories: #### Single-Qualifying Event There is only one qualifying event that could resolve the market. If it happened before market creation, it cannot happen again. Single-qualifying-event DOA markets are generally **removed and refunded**. *Example*: *Supreme Court unblocks Alien Enemies Act?* — If the Supreme Court already unblocked the Alien Enemies Act before market creation, it cannot happen again. #### Multiple-Qualifying Events There may be multiple qualifying events that could resolve the market. A qualifying event happening before market creation does not prevent another qualifying event from occurring. The earlier event **does not count toward resolution**, but a new qualifying event after market creation can still count. *Example*: *Earthquake 8.0 or above before September?* — If an 8.0 earthquake occurred an hour before market creation, it would not count, but another 8.0 earthquake could still qualify. ### DOA Markets and Resolution Whether a market is DOA can itself become a **resolution issue**, especially when it's unclear whether a qualifying event already happened before market creation. Traders may request a **clarification** from Polymarket when it's unclear whether a market is DOA or how it should be treated. *Example*: In *Will Venezuela recognize Israel by December 31?*, traders argued that Venezuela's existing recognition of Israel could make the market **DOA** and requested clarification from Polymarket. Polymarket later clarified the market. #### Clarifications to Preserve Market Validity In rare cases, Polymarket may issue a clarification to prevent a market from being treated as **DOA** when the original rules create an impossible condition. *Example*: In *Astronomer Divorce Parlay*, the rules required Kristin Cabot or her spouse to announce an intent to divorce. After uncertainty arose over whether Cabot was married when the market was created, Polymarket clarified that if she was unmarried at creation, the condition would still be satisfied. This allowed the market to remain valid instead of being treated as **DOA**. ### More Examples Here are some more examples of the **two types of DOA markets**: | Single-Qualifying Event | Multiple-Qualifying Event | | ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ | ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- | |

Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026
If it was awarded, it cannot be awarded again.

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Will Kanye launch a coin in 2025?
If Kanye already launched one before market creation, another launch is possible.

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Will Coinbase's TBA app launch before October?
If it launched before market creation, it cannot launch again.

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Will Coinbase US perps offer more than 10x leverage?
If leverage was already raised before market creation, another raise is possible.

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Will the Supreme Court overturn gay marriage in 2025?
If it was overturned before market creation, it cannot be overturned again.

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Obama in jail in 2025?
If Obama was already jailed before market creation, he could be jailed again.

| ### Review To review, **single-qualifying-event DOA markets** are generally removed and refunded, while **multiple-qualifying-event DOA markets** may continue if another qualifying event can occur. In either case, events that happen before market creation generally **do not count toward resolution**.