> For the complete documentation index, see [llms.txt](https://polymarketguide.gitbook.io/polymarketguide/llms.txt). Markdown versions of documentation pages are available by appending `.md` to page URLs; this page is available as [Markdown](https://polymarketguide.gitbook.io/polymarketguide/markets/categories/weather.md).

# Weather

Weather markets resolve based on weather measurements or classifications for a specified location and timeframe. These can include temperature, precipitation, and drought conditions.

### How do they work?

Weather markets define the conditions that determine which measurements or classifications count.

Conditions can include:

* **Location**\
  *Example*: New York City.
* **Measurement or classification**\
  *Example*: Daily high temperature.
* **Threshold or range**\
  *Example*: 90–91°F.
* **Timeframe**\
  *Example*: August 28, 2026.

### Resolution Sources

Common resolution sources for weather markets include:

* **NOAA / National Weather Service (NWS)**
* **Weather Underground**
* **Government weather agencies**, such as the Hong Kong Observatory
* **U.S. Drought Monitor**

Always check the **market's listed source** — it can affect how the market will resolve.

<figure><img src="https://3511841878-files.gitbook.io/~/files/v0/b/gitbook-x-prod.appspot.com/o/spaces%2FwmHFi7NV8gmAN3L4jVKb%2Fuploads%2FBwcBgK3mrOl5LwvX1yPx%2Fimage.png?alt=media&amp;token=62c05ebb-fe50-4475-969e-f842fa5aed70" alt=""><figcaption></figcaption></figure>

### What should I be aware of?

* **Specific weather stations** can determine which observations qualify.
* **Measurement rules** can define thresholds, units, or precision.
* **Observation periods** may differ from ordinary calendar days.
* **Data finalization rules** can determine which report or revision is used.

<figure><img src="https://3511841878-files.gitbook.io/~/files/v0/b/gitbook-x-prod.appspot.com/o/spaces%2FwmHFi7NV8gmAN3L4jVKb%2Fuploads%2Fs266yl7Cl4ZfTIfBRcJv%2Fimage.png?alt=media&amp;token=f5c71682-02d6-4a28-a256-059915e6e2d1" alt=""><figcaption></figcaption></figure>

### Examples

Here are examples of how rulesets are structured:

{% tabs %}
{% tab title="Temperature" %}

<figure><img src="https://3511841878-files.gitbook.io/~/files/v0/b/gitbook-x-prod.appspot.com/o/spaces%2FwmHFi7NV8gmAN3L4jVKb%2Fuploads%2FBnIHvChS0yLPTfOJgfxu%2Fimage.png?alt=media&amp;token=60a4a235-664a-4c81-8069-63bb02555d35" alt=""><figcaption></figcaption></figure>

**Resolution Criteria:** The highest temperature recorded at Tokyo Haneda Airport on September 3, 2026 falls within the listed range.

**Resolution Source:** NOAA

**Additional Rules:** Resolution uses the highest temperature reported for the day in whole degrees Celsius.

**Data Finalization Clause:** Revisions are considered until the first data point for the following date is published.

**Data Availability Clause:** If the required NOAA data is unavailable by the deadline, Weather Underground will be used. If no data is available from either source by the deadline, the market resolves to the lowest bracket.
{% endtab %}

{% tab title="Precipitation" %}

<figure><img src="https://3511841878-files.gitbook.io/~/files/v0/b/gitbook-x-prod.appspot.com/o/spaces%2FwmHFi7NV8gmAN3L4jVKb%2Fuploads%2FR3H0BOBUBcSXsPp4UqYM%2Fimage.png?alt=media&amp;token=0cb508ba-fe47-4b22-83eb-54ccac6e50d3" alt=""><figcaption></figcaption></figure>

**Resolution Criteria:** New York City records at least 0.01 inches of precipitation on August 28, 2026.

**Resolution Source:** NWS Daily Climate Report (CLI)

**Additional Rules:** Trace precipitation does not qualify. Resolution uses the NWS climate day for KNYC, and the final report is issued the following morning.

**Data Finalization Clause:** If multiple reports are issued, the latest one published by 11:59 PM ET the following day governs.

**Data Availability Clause:** If no precipitation figure is published by then, the market resolves to No.
{% endtab %}

{% tab title="Drought" %}

<figure><img src="https://3511841878-files.gitbook.io/~/files/v0/b/gitbook-x-prod.appspot.com/o/spaces%2FwmHFi7NV8gmAN3L4jVKb%2Fuploads%2FN3LJqfw24ZkH35YY1GKM%2Fimage.png?alt=media&amp;token=7bfb4b0f-7b4d-4d37-b040-0f0cd786df94" alt=""><figcaption></figcaption></figure>

**Resolution Criteria:** Alabama has D4 (Exceptional Drought) on at least 0.05% of its land area in the U.S. Drought Monitor release for the week of September 1, 2026.

**Resolution Source:** U.S. Drought Monitor

**Additional Rules:** Each U.S. Drought Monitor release covers the seven-day period ending Tuesday at 8:00 AM ET and is published the following Thursday.

**Data Finalization Clause:** Resolution uses the first published release for the listed week. Later revisions are not considered.
{% endtab %}
{% endtabs %}