> For the complete documentation index, see [llms.txt](https://polymarketguide.gitbook.io/polymarketguide/llms.txt). Markdown versions of documentation pages are available by appending `.md` to page URLs; this page is available as [Markdown](https://polymarketguide.gitbook.io/polymarketguide/markets/categories/health.md).

# Health

Health markets resolve based on public health events, reported health data, or regulatory decisions. These can include outbreaks, case counts, public health declarations, and drug approvals.

### How do they work?

Health markets define the conditions that determine which health events or reported values count.

Conditions can include:

* **Subject**\
  *Example*: Measles.
* **Condition**\
  *Example*: At least 4,000 confirmed cases.
* **Location**\
  *Example*: United States.
* **Timeframe**\
  *Example*: During 2026.

### Resolution Sources

Common resolution sources for health markets include:

* **Public health authorities**, such as the WHO and CDC
* **Regulatory agencies**, such as the FDA
* **Official health data and case counters**, such as the CDC Measles (Rubeola) counter
* **Consensus of credible reporting**

Always check the **market's listed source** — it can affect how the market will resolve. 

<figure><img src="https://3511841878-files.gitbook.io/~/files/v0/b/gitbook-x-prod.appspot.com/o/spaces%2FwmHFi7NV8gmAN3L4jVKb%2Fuploads%2FYcxnwhL6zvxfa61L0E0j%2Fimage.png?alt=media&amp;token=1830b80c-f220-4ca3-9545-b5b59dddae02" alt=""><figcaption></figcaption></figure>

### What should I be aware of?

* **Official designations** can determine whether a health event qualifies.
* **Case definitions and sources** can determine which reported cases count.
* **Reporting dates** can determine whether an event falls within the market's timeframe.
* **Regulatory definitions** can determine which approvals or agency actions qualify.

<figure><img src="https://3511841878-files.gitbook.io/~/files/v0/b/gitbook-x-prod.appspot.com/o/spaces%2FwmHFi7NV8gmAN3L4jVKb%2Fuploads%2FtnkR0WKMn5NzCrl7ryMB%2Fimage.png?alt=media&amp;token=b60dbd51-498c-4437-953b-30d26023d3d5" alt=""><figcaption></figcaption></figure>

### Examples

Here are examples of how rulesets are structured:

{% tabs %}
{% tab title="Pandemic" %}

<figure><img src="https://3511841878-files.gitbook.io/~/files/v0/b/gitbook-x-prod.appspot.com/o/spaces%2FwmHFi7NV8gmAN3L4jVKb%2Fuploads%2FtVWodrLIGdQjb94qFYaK%2Fimage.png?alt=media&amp;token=03f7ec10-d84f-4d1b-9016-7b0aa65e2343" alt=""><figcaption></figcaption></figure>

**Resolution Criteria:** The WHO declares any disease a pandemic between January 1 and December 31, 2026.

**Resolution Source:** World Health Organization (WHO)
{% endtab %}

{% tab title="Case Count" %}

<figure><img src="https://3511841878-files.gitbook.io/~/files/v0/b/gitbook-x-prod.appspot.com/o/spaces%2FwmHFi7NV8gmAN3L4jVKb%2Fuploads%2FCiMwlFVyxwP04mzszCLJ%2Fimage.png?alt=media&amp;token=9e591a94-10f1-49ef-aa41-fabae94b57b6" alt=""><figcaption></figcaption></figure>

**Resolution Criteria:** The United States records at least the specified number of confirmed measles cases during 2026.

**Resolution Source:** CDC Measles (Rubeola) counter

**Additional Rules:** Only cases reported by the specified CDC counter qualify, regardless of reports from state agencies or other sources.

**Backup Source:** If the CDC counter becomes unavailable, another credible source will be used.
{% endtab %}

{% tab title="Outbreak" %}

<figure><img src="https://3511841878-files.gitbook.io/~/files/v0/b/gitbook-x-prod.appspot.com/o/spaces%2FwmHFi7NV8gmAN3L4jVKb%2Fuploads%2FrgTgwnTpXSmkOad2I5SJ%2Fimage.png?alt=media&amp;token=6525ee1e-ca11-4eb9-9f14-4fb97d9cef5e" alt=""><figcaption></figcaption></figure>

**Resolution Criteria:** A laboratory-confirmed case of the current Bundibugyo ebolavirus outbreak is reported in a qualifying new country by September 30, 2026.

**Resolution Source:** Relevant national and international health authorities, including the CDC and WHO, or an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting

**Additional Rules:** The Democratic Republic of the Congo, Uganda, and France do not qualify because they had already reported cases at market creation. A case counts for the country assigned by the qualifying source, regardless of where exposure, symptom onset, or specimen collection occurred. Resolution uses the date the confirmation is published; reports published after the deadline do not count.
{% endtab %}

{% tab title="Drug Approval" %}

<figure><img src="https://3511841878-files.gitbook.io/~/files/v0/b/gitbook-x-prod.appspot.com/o/spaces%2FwmHFi7NV8gmAN3L4jVKb%2Fuploads%2Fdam22v0Xz8Ym8TQN75g6%2Fimage.png?alt=media&amp;token=b404c48d-ce4c-4694-be59-55abd9b4d19b" alt=""><figcaption></figcaption></figure>

**Resolution Criteria:** The FDA grants full or conditional approval for a drug product containing Eli Lilly's retatrutide for any use by December 31, 2026.

**Resolution Source:** Official information from the FDA and a consensus of credible reporting

**Additional Rules:** Standard, accelerated, REMS, restricted, and conditional approvals qualify. Tentative approvals, requests for additional information or studies, PDUFA date extensions, compassionate or expanded access, export-only approvals, Emergency Use Authorizations, and Complete Response Letters do not qualify. A qualifying approval still counts if an advisory committee voted against it or the approval is later withdrawn.
{% endtab %}
{% endtabs %}