> For the complete documentation index, see [llms.txt](https://polymarketguide.gitbook.io/polymarketguide/llms.txt). Markdown versions of documentation pages are available by appending `.md` to page URLs; this page is available as [Markdown](https://polymarketguide.gitbook.io/polymarketguide/markets/categories/economic-data.md).

# Economic Data

Economic data markets resolve based on values reported in official economic releases. These can include inflation, employment, and GDP.

### How do they work?

Economic data markets define the conditions that determine which reported value counts.

Conditions can include:

* **Indicator**\
  *Example*: Consumer Price Index (CPI).
* **Measurement**\
  *Example*: One-month percent change.
* **Value or range**\
  *Example*: 0.3%.
* **Reference period**\
  *Example*: August 2026.

### Resolution Sources

Common resolution sources for economic data markets include:

* **Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS)**
* **Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA)**
* **National statistical agencies**, such as the UK Office for National Statistics (ONS)

Always check the **market's listed source** — it can affect how the market will resolve.

<figure><img src="https://3511841878-files.gitbook.io/~/files/v0/b/gitbook-x-prod.appspot.com/o/spaces%2FwmHFi7NV8gmAN3L4jVKb%2Fuploads%2FqFbS4TKDQhl7w4tOL0BD%2Fimage.png?alt=media&amp;token=4403b3d8-4e02-43a9-b885-85893a19ee1e" alt=""><figcaption></figcaption></figure>

### What should I be aware of?

* **Exact data series** can determine which reported figure counts.
* **Reported precision and range boundaries** can determine which outcome qualifies.
* **Data finalization rules** can determine whether the initial release or later revisions count.
* **Delayed or missing releases** can determine which fallback figure is used.

<figure><img src="https://3511841878-files.gitbook.io/~/files/v0/b/gitbook-x-prod.appspot.com/o/spaces%2FwmHFi7NV8gmAN3L4jVKb%2Fuploads%2FaCUe8DzZKk9P7cLiJSEC%2Fimage.png?alt=media&amp;token=27ad17bf-89a4-4313-b88e-5ad516d996b6" alt=""><figcaption></figcaption></figure>

### Examples

Here are examples of how rulesets are structured:

{% tabs %}
{% tab title="Inflation" %}

<figure><img src="https://3511841878-files.gitbook.io/~/files/v0/b/gitbook-x-prod.appspot.com/o/spaces%2FwmHFi7NV8gmAN3L4jVKb%2Fuploads%2FLcurFmpi6EZZzYaeykrQ%2Fimage.png?alt=media&amp;token=c5220687-2e0b-4605-a78a-ffa882508c49" alt=""><figcaption></figcaption></figure>

**Resolution Criteria:** The one-month percent change in the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) in August 2026 matches the listed outcome.

**Resolution Source:** Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS)

**Additional Rules:** Resolution uses the official monthly CPI-U figure, reported to one decimal place.

**Data Availability Clause:** If the August figure is not released by the scheduled time of the next CPI report, the most recent previous month with available data will be used.
{% endtab %}

{% tab title="Unemployment" %}

<figure><img src="https://3511841878-files.gitbook.io/~/files/v0/b/gitbook-x-prod.appspot.com/o/spaces%2FwmHFi7NV8gmAN3L4jVKb%2Fuploads%2F9yGAuUvDyEgYYkFY87Ck%2Fimage.png?alt=media&amp;token=d6538941-c5b5-4d92-88f4-ceca4501d2c1" alt=""><figcaption></figcaption></figure>

**Resolution Criteria:** The seasonally adjusted U-3 unemployment rate for August 2026 matches the listed outcome.

**Resolution Source:** BLS Employment Situation Report

**Additional Rules:** Resolution uses the official U-3 figure, reported to one decimal place.

**Data Finalization Clause:** Resolution uses the first published figure. Later revisions do not count.

**Data Availability Clause:** If the August figure is not released by the scheduled release date for the following month, the most recent previous month with available data will be used.
{% endtab %}

{% tab title="GDP" %}

<figure><img src="https://3511841878-files.gitbook.io/~/files/v0/b/gitbook-x-prod.appspot.com/o/spaces%2FwmHFi7NV8gmAN3L4jVKb%2Fuploads%2FdmcJgXUauIka318cLRUf%2Fimage.png?alt=media&amp;token=3d665e99-a9f6-456d-b11c-d2e08f57f44c" alt=""><figcaption></figcaption></figure>

**Resolution Criteria:** The seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026 falls within the listed range.

**Resolution Source:** Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA)

**Additional Rules:** Resolution uses the full-year growth rate reported in the Q4 2026 Advance Estimate. If the value falls exactly between two brackets, the higher range applies.

**Data Finalization Clause:** Resolution uses the figure reported in the Advance Estimate. Later revisions do not count.

**Data Availability Clause:** If the Advance Estimate is not released, the first officially published BEA estimate will be used. If no estimate is released by the scheduled date of the next quarter's Advance Estimate, the most recent previous BEA figure will be used.
{% endtab %}
{% endtabs %}