> For the complete documentation index, see [llms.txt](https://polymarketguide.gitbook.io/polymarketguide/llms.txt). Markdown versions of documentation pages are available by appending `.md` to page URLs; this page is available as [Markdown](https://polymarketguide.gitbook.io/polymarketguide/case-studies/did-trump-deploy/what-happened.md). # What Happened? Before we begin, here's a review of how the events unfolded (Eastern Time).
TimeEvent
August 9 at 9:50 amTrump announces press conference for August 11
August 10 at 10:22 pmPolymarket launches Trump deploys National Guard in D.C. by Monday?
August 10 at 10:23 pm – August 11 at 12:58 amUsers discuss what qualifies as deployment
August 11 at 12:58 amPolymarket issues initial clarification
August 11 at 10:38 am – 11:55 amTrump press conference
August 11 at 11:23 amWhite House releases Restoring Law and Order in the District of Columbia memorandum
August 11 at 11:50 amPolymarket launches Trump deploys National Guard in D.C. by August 31?
August 11 at 5:21 pmMarket proposed as "Yes"
August 11 at 5:28 pmProposal disputed
August 11 at 5:28 pm – August 12 at 12:00 amDiscussions resume
August 12 at 12:01 amMarket proposed as "No"
August 12 at 12:16 amPolymarket issues a second clarification
August 12 at 12:19 amSecond proposal disputed
August 12 at 12:19 am – August 13 at 8:00 pmPolymarket criticized by several users
August 13 at 8:00 pmVoting begins
August 15 at 8:00 pmMarket resolves
### Market Price Action There were three key instances of volatile price action. The **first spike** began about an hour before the press conference, with the price rising from **40¢** to **94¢** during the event. **Shortly after** Trump announced the deployment of the National Guard, the price plunged from **94¢** to **7¢** in under an hour. The **second spike** followed Polymarket's second clarification, when order books were cleared and the price jumped from **25¢** to **99¢**. Trading took place mostly within two price ranges: * The price traded between **35¢** and **50¢** from market creation until an hour before the press conference * The price traded between **15¢** and **40¢** while users debated whether the event qualified or if Trump would make additional qualifying statements before market close
### Polymarket's First Mistake The heart of the controversy centered on the market's wording. The description stated that the market would resolve to "Yes" if Trump **deployed National Guard troops into Washington, D.C., on active duty.** But in military terminology, **"activation" is what places Guard members on active duty.** Trump's order mobilized and activated the Guard, meaning they were placed into active duty. Polymarket, however, repeatedly used the word "deploy," at one point stating that "only the deployment will qualify." This created confusion: **activation puts the Guard into active duty, but deployment refers to assigning them to a mission.** Because the market never asked whether Trump would activate the Guard and instead relied on the incorrect term "deploy," the result was uncertainty. When the Guard was **activated, placed into active duty, and a future deployment was announced,** users were split over whether activation alone was sufficient or whether deployment was required.
#### Coming Up Having understood what happened, we can now turn to the arguments on both sides, starting with the case for a "Yes" resolution.