# What Happened?

Before we begin, here's a review of how the events unfolded (Eastern Time).&#x20;

<table><thead><tr><th width="268.5833740234375">Time</th><th>Event</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td>August 9 at 9:50 am</td><td>Trump announces press conference for August 11</td></tr><tr><td><strong>August 10 at 10:22 pm</strong></td><td>Polymarket launches <em>Trump deploys National Guard in D.C. by Monday?</em></td></tr><tr><td>August 10 at 10:23 pm – August 11 at 12:58 am</td><td>Users discuss about what qualifies as deployment</td></tr><tr><td><strong>August 11 at 12:58 am</strong></td><td>Polymarket issues initial clarification</td></tr><tr><td>August 11 at 10:38 am – 11:55 pm</td><td>Trump press conference</td></tr><tr><td>August 11 at 11:23 am</td><td>White House releases <em>Restoring Law and Order in the District of Columbia</em> <em>memorandum</em></td></tr><tr><td><strong>August 11 at 11:50 am</strong></td><td>Polymarket launches <em>Trump deploys National Guard in D.C. by August 31?</em></td></tr><tr><td><strong>August 11 at 5:21 pm</strong></td><td>Market proposed as "Yes"</td></tr><tr><td>August 11 at 5:28 pm</td><td>Proposal disputed</td></tr><tr><td>August 11 at 5:28 pm – August 12 at 12:00 am</td><td>Discussions resume</td></tr><tr><td><strong>August 12 at 12:01 am</strong></td><td>Market proposed as "No"</td></tr><tr><td><strong>August 12 at 12:16 am</strong></td><td>Polymarket issues a second clarification</td></tr><tr><td>August 12 at 12:19 am</td><td>Second proposal disputed</td></tr><tr><td>August 12 at 12:19 am – August 13 at 8:00 pm</td><td>Polymarket criticized by several users</td></tr><tr><td>August 13 at 8:00 pm</td><td>Voting begins</td></tr><tr><td>August 15 at 8:00 pm</td><td>Market resolves</td></tr></tbody></table>

### Market Price Action

There were three key instances of volatile price action.

The **first spike** began about an hour before the press conference, with the price rising from **40¢** to **94¢** during the event.

**Shortly after** Trump announced the deployment of the National Guard, the price plunged from **94¢** to **7¢** in under an hour.&#x20;

The **second spike** followed Polymarket's second clarification, when order books were cleared and the price jumped from **27¢** to **99¢**.&#x20;

Trading took place mostly within two price ranges:&#x20;

* The price traded between **35¢** and **50¢** from market creation until an hour before the press conference
* The price traded between **15¢** and **40¢** while users debated whether the event qualified or if Trump would make additional qualifying statements before market close

<figure><img src="https://2293932773-files.gitbook.io/~/files/v0/b/gitbook-x-prod.appspot.com/o/spaces%2FRo4CxwI5b8WUYUwYnbDu%2Fuploads%2F8mntId1qd9s2ilGLGPFu%2Fimage.png?alt=media&#x26;token=d08a2ee0-508a-4bc8-a639-9f67534d13a3" alt=""><figcaption></figcaption></figure>

### Polymarket's First Mistake

The heart of the controversy centered on the market's wording. The description stated that the market would resolve to "Yes" if Trump **deployed National Guard troops into Washington, D.C., on active duty.** But in military terminology, **"activation" is what places Guard members on active duty.** Trump's order mobilized and activated the Guard, meaning they were placed into active duty.

Polymarket, however, repeatedly used the word "deploy," at one point stating that "only the deployment will qualify." This created confusion: **activation puts the Guard into active duty, but deployment refers to assigning them to a mission.** Because the market never asked whether Trump would activate the Guard and instead relied on the incorrect term "deploy," the result was uncertainty. When the Guard was **activated, placed into active duty, and a future deployment was announced,** users were split over whether activation alone was sufficient or whether deployment was required.&#x20;

<figure><img src="https://2293932773-files.gitbook.io/~/files/v0/b/gitbook-x-prod.appspot.com/o/spaces%2FRo4CxwI5b8WUYUwYnbDu%2Fuploads%2FYX8LsfOBNSNgwMTpHBNE%2Fimage.png?alt=media&#x26;token=36905703-3a58-4687-ba18-f1ac80a471ff" alt=""><figcaption></figcaption></figure>

#### Coming Up

Having understood what happened, we can now turn to the arguments on both sides, starting with the case for a "Yes" resolution.
